Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d2b85ff5d0e78cfabba704a0d2c5ba650ee3e38aa7ee4636936f8a230a9e95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,908 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 24c | 2,595$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.18 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 2,168$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 72c | 2,078$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.47 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 11c | 1,784$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 35c | 1,591$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.87 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 25c | 1,250$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.9 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 2c | 1,213$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 8c | 1,130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 14c | 1,077$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 3c | 894.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 78c | 832.97$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.77 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 52c | 543$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 12c | 541.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 54c | 500$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.78 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 65c | 427.81$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.81 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed No | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 15c | 337.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 75c | 309.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 17c | 299.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed No | 10c | 279.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 277.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 29c | 229.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f80…6512backed No | 17c | 177.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…a01abacked No | 18c | 164.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 40c | 153.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 7c | 138.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 55c | 134.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 11c | 118.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 62c | 110.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 54c | 109$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…b7bfbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…cc34backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 12c | 85.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 29c | 65.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 55.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 28c | 51.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 45c | 34.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…777cbacked Yes | 59c | 30.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.