Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4b550789856bdcbc2ef4e3277ab9325c7b7a9d6a62f983c38b9f5e927f4415b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,829 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bf7…7ac1backed No | 0c | 16,643$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021d…2d8ebacked No | 2c | 5,357$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 4,606$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 55c | 4,462$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.81 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…9cc1backed No | 3c | 4,022$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 52c | 3,575$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.64 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,181$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…1b94backed Yes | 47c | 3,000$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…7f7abacked No | 2c | 2,826$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 27c | 2,800$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 60c | 2,442$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.92 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 8c | 2,100$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 1,872$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 36c | 1,867$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.66 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 7c | 1,850$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 8c | 1,850$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,666$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…7609backed No | 7c | 1,527$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 3c | 1,496$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…16dbbacked No | 58c | 1,436$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…34b3backed No | 1c | 1,410$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 16c | 1,400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.53 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 66c | 1,326$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.99 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65c…9305backed No | 3c | 1,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed No | 39c | 1,280$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…1f4fbacked No | 4c | 1,239$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 11c | 1,202$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.6 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed No | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 1,156$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed No | 2c | 1,138$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 1,121$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 6c | 1,050$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 6c | 1,050$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed No | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 13c | 1,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 31c | 999.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 992.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8221backed No | 2c | 943.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 13c | 900$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 57c | 899.99$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…cf23backed No | 7c | 882.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 2c | 832.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe121…3956backed No | 4c | 826.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…a3adbacked No | 1c | 825.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed No | 39c | 800$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 13c | 750$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 3c | 733.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 731.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 51c | 707.76$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 694.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed No | 43c | 686.73$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.05 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…82f8backed No | 60c | 664$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…22a4backed No | 2c | 611.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 44c | 590.79$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.11 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 49c | 588.71$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.71 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 51c | 533.89$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.25 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 62c | 492.54$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.15 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 51c | 481.93$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.67 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 31c | 468.03$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 51c | 467.54$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0803…0af4backed No | 3c | 437.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 3c | 430.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Yes | 50c | 383.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb091…2ba7backed No | 3c | 381.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 62c | 370$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…6990backed Yes | 72c | 349.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…b4c6backed No | 7c | 344.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 58c | 337.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…7fe8backed Yes | 47c | 331.84$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 328.8$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 65c | 308.24$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 276.79$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 11c | 257.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 40c | 250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 41c | 245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd07c…4c13backed No | 5c | 239.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…fdf2backed No | 5c | 218.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed No | 38c | 213.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 51c | 209.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 57c | 206.21$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…17c4backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +296.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 175.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed Yes | 62c | 175$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…4a52backed No | 6c | 169.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed No | 32c | 151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 60c | 147.28$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…3e4ebacked No | 55c | 141.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…a4d9backed No | 71c | 138.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e3…5c79backed Yes | 31c | 131.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 52c | 111.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.