TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x52dd…d79f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Weather, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 63 out of 100; worst Boxing at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2828.6%8 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+104.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+900%+$258.22
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+689.5%+$393
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+900%+$270
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+689.5%+$393
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.6
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+488.2%+$124.5
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.5
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+400%+$120
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+426.3%+$121.5
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.5
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$78
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$28.5
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$51
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$23.68
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$34.5
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$105
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$64.5
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+400%+$120
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+400%+$120
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$49.5
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$78
ChatGPT Outage by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$61.5
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+201.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+542.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+386.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+341.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+782.4%+$399
Prince Andrew released by February 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+455.6%+$123
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$37.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russell McAlmond be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.