TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,266 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No8c10,168$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.483426.5%9 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-42.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d4…4027backed Yes77c8,362$6,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.164665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes75c5,561$4,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.622123.8%5 W · 16 L-6.9wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-60%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No33c5,069$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.474751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No10c2,200$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2205311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed No25c1,395$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.065822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf87e…5752backed No41c1,344$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.041050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes36c1,312$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.973423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be8…573dbacked No14c1,150$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No27c1,063$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2219440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes76c1,040$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.414930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No3c1,024$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7333123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5726…10f5backed No14c940$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b5…80eebacked No33c933.53$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.531136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes72c810.74$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.1517540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd49…7fe8backed No41c592$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.721250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No11c545.39$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.362416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e9…5250backed Yes37c500$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31714037.1%52 W · 88 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No19c490.93$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.91983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No10c484.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c461.3$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9248414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked No32c436.49$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.34714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-74.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes68c428.61$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.455621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6350…a95abacked No41c400$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15c6…91d7backed No41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No24c390.46$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.413721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x198b…cd1abacked No41c378$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.48633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No17c369.42$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.721,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb1…5c16backed No28c364.72$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.415962.7%37 W · 22 L+8.4wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed No33c350.07$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.621855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaab4…fe7abacked No41c330$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No38c310$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc553…b054backed No4c294.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No26c293.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.31736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda2c…2a5ebacked No41c274$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.841233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc32…a158backed No40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No60c230.02$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.142245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed No37c222$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.146328.6%18 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes21c213$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.272119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No64c210$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9614240.1%57 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No12c199.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes66c199.17$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes77c187.48$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No33c159.2$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.282755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.413034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked No12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42119%4 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c9…232cbacked No11c138.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No27c137.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.618444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No27c136.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4210139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8646…1951backed No41c134$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a9…ff55backed No15c115.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No34c113.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.521637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No13c111.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.022412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4001…5010backed No12c111$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f32…78cebacked No41c106$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.961136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes52c101.55$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.564139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87dd…a18ebacked No26c94.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No29c70.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.49825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-61%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes62c68.29$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.291346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No16c67.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.843619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x3af1…2330backed No39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No35c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50ad…1588backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked No41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399226.1%24 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28cd…d99abacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc53…cb5ebacked No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.111254.5%61 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.9wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-59.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x30e8…38b0backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6900…a745backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No25c46.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.748332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed Yes40c41.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.038658.1%50 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes59c33.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed No36c33.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.091822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked No35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.528461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed No35c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes61c29.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.44825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3c…4169backed Yes79c25.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-70.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No80c20.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3920668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No70c19.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.437969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.