Movies · resolved market
Will "Nobody 2" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52cca326a638850e2caea2ef03ae2e7e527e17e97eb89df26990e4a92f03be97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,462 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 27c | 2,723$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.7 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,035$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149c…ff0fbacked Yes | 30c | 815$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…4a4fbacked Yes | 29c | 790$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…9405backed Yes | 28c | 730$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe402…d026backed Yes | 30c | 730$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe374…3b31backed Yes | 33c | 666$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 28c | 623.12$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 25c | 606.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…f7b0backed No | 70c | 410$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…5c87backed No | 70c | 405$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5200…fee9backed No | 71c | 400$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…113cbacked No | 73c | 390$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…cf46backed No | 71c | 390$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf069…a2b5backed No | 72c | 380$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccc…3815backed No | 67c | 374$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9e…f806backed No | 73c | 370$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…7aacbacked No | 72c | 350$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 7c | 300.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4370…abd8backed No | 67c | 292$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 12c | 241.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 28c | 151.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Yes | 14c | 105.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 71.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 60.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 28c | 59.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 71c | 42.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 29c | 38.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 72c | 27.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7b…173bbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Nobody 2" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Jurassic World Rebirth" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Yes won
- Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.