AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6ce2c66cf85fc7784cd01f4b6b80bd303c26a420a303a983f04c717cd48bed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 6c | 32,354$2,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,013.9 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked No | 1c | 13,500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 36c | 1,410$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 5c | 1,050$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 5c | 1,050$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc27…cf52backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 36c | 901$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 64c | 845$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 798.65$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.1 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 12c | 750$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed No | 12c | 750$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 39c | 690$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 61c | 690$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 650$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528d…1684backed Yes | 57c | 634.56$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 57c | 519.67$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.67 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…d648backed Yes | 63c | 517.47$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…5970backed No | 59c | 512.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked No | 40c | 500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +138%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 37c | 464.11$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…2d2cbacked No | 29c | 463.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 429.32$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked No | 62c | 400.82$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 361.88$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 40c | 360.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.17 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 37c | 349.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 31c | 348.48$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 64c | 325$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 38c | 315$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 43c | 310.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75a…49f9backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 42c | 241.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 63c | 207.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 64c | 206.78$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 45c | 204$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…8df4backed No | 50c | 201.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 36c | 188$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 164.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 58c | 161$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 55c | 159.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 62c | 157.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 70c | 154.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d5…c20fbacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…d2c7backed No | 59c | 126.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a20…295abacked No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3e52backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…1fc1backed No | 66c | 95.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 41c | 86.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 51c | 86.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked No | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…74f9backed No | 62c | 81.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 78.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 43c | 75.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…7366backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3052backed No | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 66c | 65.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 49c | 64.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…23eabacked No | 47c | 63.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…c76abacked No | 51c | 61.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…3851backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…8363backed Yes | 54c | 55.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…7f79backed No | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…e584backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 54c | 48.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 47.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 43.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…f4e4backed No | 61c | 32.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked No | 62c | 30.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed Yes | 41c | 25.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…aadabacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 51c | 19.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3db5…fb00backed No | 62c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2642…c8aebacked No | 57c | 17.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 68c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.