TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x842b…b366backed No6c32,354$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.93710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-82.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked No1c13,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed Yes36c1,410$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.671464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c1,142$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.885510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No5c1,050$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0d…d3adbacked No5c1,050$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc27…cf52backed No63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No36c901$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.362520%5 W · 20 L-5.8wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes64c845$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes55c798.65$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed No12c750$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6f…87f9backed No12c750$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes39c690$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.91241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed No61c690$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.91553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No13c650$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x528d…1684backed Yes57c634.56$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes57c519.67$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.6736945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2d6…d648backed Yes63c517.47$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de3…5970backed No59c512.57$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9339…a56fbacked No40c500$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+138%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes37c464.11$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.582254.5%12 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+65.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x50ca…2d2cbacked No29c463.56$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No41c429.32$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6820731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked No62c400.82$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No37c361.88$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.689317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes40c360.28$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.176150.8%31 W · 30 L+16.6wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+158.1%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes37c349.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.525837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed No31c348.48$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.872050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes64c325$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes38c315$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19419040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No43c310.06$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6911841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75a…49f9backed No37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Yes42c241.5$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.271050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed No63c207.18$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed No64c206.78$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.34933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-51.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No45c204$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6212050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe049…8df4backed No50c201.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked No36c188$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.681855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+100.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No49c164.01$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0820544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked No58c161$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.672650%13 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec4…30b5backed No55c159.47$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.781625%4 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes62c157.3$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.854537.8%17 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes70c154.67$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.42166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d5…c20fbacked No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ea…d2c7backed No59c126.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a20…295abacked No65c105$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce5…3e52backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…1fc1backed No66c95.67$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No54c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.314643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes41c86.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.611963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No51c86.67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.875250%26 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf924…435bbacked No56c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ca…74f9backed No62c81.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No36c81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.162630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c78.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed Yes43c75.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.161526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-50.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…7366backed No65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa64b…3052backed No62c66$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes66c65.61$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No49c64.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7111720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…23eabacked No47c63.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-53%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e08…c76abacked No51c61.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-54.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…3851backed No66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed No28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b8…8363backed Yes54c55.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x231e…9297backed Yes42c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…7f79backed No60c51.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2011…e584backed No37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No54c48.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8519834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes38c47.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.251,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes41c43.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.740712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.610561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes44c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.047038.6%27 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec47…f4e4backed No61c32.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb19e…b2edbacked No62c30.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.021030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed Yes41c25.08$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.821127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106331.7%20 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9286…aadabacked No55c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa793…1776backed No51c19.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick52cpaid-79.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3db5…fb00backed No62c17.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2642…c8aebacked No57c17.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes68c14.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.718435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.