AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d060aecb4dd48a7fce0df41be806bbd8489b2abca884f2dca550d59b25249ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 4c | 22,570$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.12 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked No | 10c | 2,300$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 7c | 1,400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528d…1684backed Yes | 45c | 1,393$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 22c | 1,317$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.82 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,066$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 6c | 1,050$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 6c | 1,050$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 52c | 824$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed No | 11c | 749.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 11c | 749.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 33c | 739.08$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.21 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 12c | 650$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 30c | 637.32$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked No | 74c | 611.55$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…5970backed No | 67c | 600.03$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 48c | 567$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.84 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…8af2backed No | 72c | 529.12$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 22c | 509.69$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.13 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…37a2backed No | 54c | 433.65$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 70c | 413.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.79 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked No | 69c | 412.53$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 24c | 410.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.83 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 408.22$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 33c | 404$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.68 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 399.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 28c | 312.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.67 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…5060backed No | 69c | 290$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…e2acbacked Yes | 31c | 290$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55c…da32backed No | 68c | 280$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…b700backed Yes | 32c | 278.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 63c | 265.91$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 26c | 245$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…071dbacked Yes | 32c | 237.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 48c | 211$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 67c | 210$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 50c | 207$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…8df4backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 25c | 174$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 171.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 67c | 163$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…b6b0backed Yes | 32c | 158.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 154.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 151.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 75c | 144$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…3851backed No | 72c | 139.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf5…d8d5backed No | 70c | 129.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 68c | 128$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 57c | 121.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked No | 68c | 117.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 29c | 115.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 34c | 102.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 68c | 100.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…5da2backed Yes | 33c | 100.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 88.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…178fbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Yes | 32c | 80.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 27c | 70.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 66.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 30c | 65.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked No | 68c | 61.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 66c | 60.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 57.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…4acdbacked No | 66c | 57.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 52.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe31…7f73backed No | 59c | 50.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 48.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…74f9backed No | 74c | 46.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…b265backed No | 72c | 41.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed No | 73c | 41.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…492dbacked Yes | 36c | 34.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 33.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…23eabacked No | 60c | 33.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 33c | 33.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…a3b8backed No | 70c | 32.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed No | 76c | 30.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…aadabacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…ed83backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 67c | 26.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…a690backed No | 71c | 22.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…a826backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 47c | 21.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 61c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x657b…4c29backed No | 59c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f66…747dbacked No | 66c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…1055backed No | 69c | 15.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.