AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b546452cce10a00f293c18e9c924d20866378345e645f68045658d6633d880f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 9c | 4,060$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.63 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,469$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,083$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 6c | 944.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…e2c6backed Yes | 9c | 749.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 6c | 723.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 661.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 620$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 515.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 488.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 13c | 451$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf140…3e04backed Yes | 7c | 371.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 274.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 6c | 248.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d18…c434backed Yes | 41c | 239.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 226.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 45c | 195.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 54c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 65c | 28.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.