AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3963380338edbab59890cf69d0d8bde0ec9e32d8c07a63408a358cc8100ad8f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 29c | 7,085$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,064.39 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 13c | 5,308$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,602.58 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x528d…1684backed Yes | 47c | 4,396$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 75c | 3,090$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.04 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 7c | 1,747$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.55 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 38c | 1,639$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.57 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 8c | 1,331$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.24 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…fcd1backed Yes | 80c | 1,300$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,249$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.49 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 28c | 1,125$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.97 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 22c | 961$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 22c | 850$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed No | 22c | 849.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 22c | 765$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 722$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 708.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.05 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 78c | 688$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 78c | 683$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 22c | 625$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 28c | 622.08$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.78 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…5970backed No | 78c | 602.26$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 75c | 600.01$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Yes | 9c | 569.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…efa0backed No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 21c | 496$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.84 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 491.42$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 19c | 483.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.07 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 78c | 482$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 22c | 439$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc27…cf52backed No | 72c | 388$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 74c | 371.18$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.31 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 79c | 368$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 14c | 353.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 344.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.47 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…4acdbacked No | 78c | 320$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 71c | 319$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 18c | 311.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.84 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 20c | 274.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.69 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 269.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.69 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 78c | 257$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 25c | 242.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.19 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 29c | 233.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 232.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.83 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 217.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…1fc1backed No | 80c | 207.35$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…df35backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 188.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.63 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 178.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 157.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 30c | 150.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked Yes | 21c | 145.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…8df4backed No | 78c | 128.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 79c | 128$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 105.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked Yes | 17c | 99.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +138%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 16c | 95.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 83.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 78.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 78c | 77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 74.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…069abacked Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…b6b0backed No | 75c | 67.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…07f2backed No | 80c | 62.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 20c | 57.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 78c | 57.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe578…4b09backed Yes | 24c | 52.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 50.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…bc67backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9286…aadabacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 49.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…8f53backed No | 74c | 48.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 68c | 47.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 74c | 44.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…a0f7backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +392.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed No | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 33c | 35.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…15cdbacked No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…fe90backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked No | 77c | 18.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…74debacked No | 73c | 15.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c2…e2d9backed No | 74c | 14.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae64…af38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14?No won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.