Commodities · resolved market
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32bd28c0c288da3ddf21b34f6a86679c2ae81232f03441df6b9eff63d16a6cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 36c | 18,803$6,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,017.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…4d8cbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1a…b022backed No | 0c | 10,949$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…a184backed No | 77c | 9,189$7,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0b…cf68backed No | 2c | 4,970$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 13c | 2,981$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 72c | 2,779$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes | 41c | 2,705$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…ed92backed No | 1c | 2,022$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d1…9ea6backed No | 3c | 1,856$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 1,824$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.37 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed No | 48c | 1,819$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed No | 64c | 1,629$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 34c | 1,506$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 67c | 1,496$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 43c | 1,465$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.54 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 68c | 1,405$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,337$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.33 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85bf…6f94backed No | 1c | 1,219$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8135…a544backed No | 67c | 1,195$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 48c | 1,003$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.36 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 66c | 900.02$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 16c | 900$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 888$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…2c47backed No | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 41c | 799.99$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed No | 64c | 785.7$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…be97backed No | 13c | 767.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…764cbacked No | 66c | 762.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked No | 66c | 760$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 2c | 588$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 60c | 583.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc5…b942backed No | 2c | 565.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 551.52$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.19 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 47c | 465.93$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.59 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…fe95backed No | 66c | 455.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425c…2681backed No | 66c | 452.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…9700backed No | 6c | 450.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked No | 68c | 439.71$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…b582backed No | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 70c | 428.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 411.15$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…6fdcbacked No | 53c | 379.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 55c | 362.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…79f7backed No | 56c | 356.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…4616backed No | 4c | 346$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 340.52$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.84 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed No | 4c | 337.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 55c | 330.9$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked No | 45c | 329$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 55c | 329$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 55c | 319.48$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 306.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.93 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 43c | 297.6$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 52c | 272.92$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 37c | 270.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 4c | 263.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked No | 57c | 260.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked No | 29c | 258.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 52c | 255$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 69c | 253.79$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 243.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…d9f2backed No | 67c | 233.64$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…e0b2backed No | 68c | 229.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…baa8backed No | 51c | 225.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 68c | 225$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 36c | 224.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.69 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b83…2c44backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 211.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.89 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 204$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 69c | 203.03$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 52c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 66c | 192.52$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -7.1wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +53%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…7560backed No | 10c | 171$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 165.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…5897backed No | 36c | 165.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +386.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 58c | 141.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 48c | 128.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -86%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 54c | 126.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 63c | 110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdc…f959backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1429backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…9b11backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.