TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,823

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb8e…962bbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc88…45d4backed Yes36c18,803$6,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,017.833100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+105.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdba1…4d8cbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1a…b022backed No0c10,949$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f49…a184backed No77c9,189$7,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,06010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0b…cf68backed No2c4,970$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes13c2,981$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.192437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+65.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked No72c2,779$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes41c2,705$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedad…ed92backed No1c2,022$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d1…9ea6backed No3c1,856$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No60c1,824$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.3793840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed No48c1,819$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed No64c1,629$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.191625%4 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes34c1,506$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.341546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No67c1,496$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes43c1,465$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.542744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No68c1,405$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes52c1,337$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.334045%18 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85bf…6f94backed No1c1,219$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8135…a544backed No67c1,195$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes48c1,003$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.364122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes66c900.02$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid+61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed No16c900$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No18c888$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.844617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd9…2c47backed No2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No41c799.99$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed No64c785.7$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6936…be97backed No13c767.63$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c3…764cbacked No66c762.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked No66c760$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bef…9080backed No2c588$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No60c583.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bc5…b942backed No2c565.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No42c551.52$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.1919419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6bfc…26aebacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed No65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes47c465.93$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.595853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cdb…fe95backed No66c455.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x425c…2681backed No66c452.43$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc214…9700backed No6c450.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No16c450$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No16c450$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe3…1f2abacked No68c439.71$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2907…b582backed No69c434.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe940…0fc4backed Yes70c428.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c411.15$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.7230839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1359…6fdcbacked No53c379.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed No55c362.97$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18df…79f7backed No56c356.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5843…4616backed No4c346$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c340.52$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.844669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed No4c337.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No55c330.9$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.314643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked No45c329$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes55c329$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes55c319.48$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.97921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No5c306.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-20.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.937860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1951540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No48c300$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1453327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked No52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes43c297.6$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No52c272.92$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed Yes37c270.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.262138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No4c263.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd524…2accbacked No57c260.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.461770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf5…b17fbacked No29c258.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.333342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No52c255$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.650%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No69c253.79$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.13650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No21c250$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.516516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No6c243.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.04520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+112.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…d9f2backed No67c233.64$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa519…e0b2backed No68c229.56$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed No51c225.5$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No68c225$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes36c224.68$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.698617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b83…2c44backed No45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No61c211.13$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8923846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c204$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.361,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes69c203.03$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.651258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes52c200$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.333441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…b2d3backed No65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No66c192.52$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.993324.2%8 W · 25 L-7.1wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-63.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x71f6…e115backed No56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05ad…7560backed No10c171$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes29c165.94$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6124126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b0…5897backed No36c165.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+386.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0d…d3adbacked No12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e93…353fbacked No58c141.53$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed No48c128.69$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.271010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-86%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes54c126.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.541060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca9…37d1backed No63c110$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.551723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcdc…f959backed Yes47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeff0…1429backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59e4…c67bbacked No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b86…9b11backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505337.7%20 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.