Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65da6d3f86feef2a5ccbdfc66568ee98a711952db290f96a0a3f80140f704846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3daf…b0debacked No | 4c | 22,848$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…198fbacked No | 4c | 11,250$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb62c…bea3backed No | 1c | 9,070$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed No | 0c | 8,100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed No | 0c | 7,985$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…f062backed No | 1c | 6,638$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbae…fbacbacked No | 5c | 3,432$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +495.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…a372backed No | 1c | 2,798$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…1565backed No | 4c | 2,379$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…649cbacked No | 2c | 2,092$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Yes | 49c | 2,031$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…9208backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…879dbacked No | 1c | 1,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…5563backed No | 5c | 1,956$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3f…6c18backed No | 5c | 1,925$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…3d91backed No | 5c | 1,889$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 38c | 1,578$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.64 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 4c | 1,571$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 8c | 1,400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed No | 2c | 1,229$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 1,086$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.15 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…5d1ebacked No | 5c | 1,053$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 7c | 1,050$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 7c | 1,050$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…e103backed No | 3c | 986.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…df5cbacked No | 2c | 965.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked No | 6c | 888$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 14c | 850$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 7c | 850$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 15c | 825$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 8c | 800$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 14c | 776.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.21 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 760$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 15c | 749.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…64d2backed No | 3c | 707.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 3cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 13c | 605.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.38 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…583dbacked No | 7c | 568.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 10c | 563.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.5 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 75c | 554.99$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.24 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb742…65b1backed No | 12c | 510.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 34c | 500$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.09 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…88c6backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…96a3backed No | 5c | 434.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9f5backed Yes | 23c | 427.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 54c | 422.4$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.56 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3144backed No | 3c | 405.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf094…5290backed No | 4c | 386.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…cc01backed No | 5c | 344.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed No | 78c | 299.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 4c | 247.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 79c | 235.6$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.67 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…f3b5backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 144.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 19c | 135.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 21c | 111.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 79c | 65.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 79cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…c8f9backed No | 78c | 40.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…8fa5backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 22.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 80c | 21.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ca…ca7cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…2f6abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 2?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 3?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.