Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96f346a3a33e191b91d9dfab14f77348dfaf23293e527f5f3c5c244697a421d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7869…5f5cbacked No | 2c | 4,264$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…4723backed No | 1c | 3,577$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 18c | 1,288$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.5 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 80c | 920.77$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.48 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…649cbacked No | 3c | 885.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…4709backed No | 1c | 812.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 2c | 740.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…5563backed No | 11c | 457.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…0f93backed No | 3c | 453.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 332.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 58c | 329.79$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.11 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 268$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ac…9b05backed Yes | 25c | 250$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6824…d483backed No | 78c | 228.24$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 133.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…1eedbacked Yes | 52c | 95.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed No | 75c | 71.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…355cbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked No | 74c | 54.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 2?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 3?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.