Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0daaf7183595cd8af7c3a81245a4a957677c779217257b16f0e3bf2db2366da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc745…f062backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…ab8fbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…f7e1backed No | 3c | 4,082$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked No | 3c | 2,111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 5c | 1,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 5c | 900$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 5c | 900$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…5563backed No | 12c | 845.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 12c | 799.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 10c | 650$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 44c | 639.23$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.48 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f2…37e1backed No | 2c | 568.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +166.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 71c | 538.05$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.02 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 40c | 500$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 313$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 62c | 161.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b3…1c03backed No | 52c | 148.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 27c | 137.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3882…146dbacked No | 47c | 130.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 64c | 120.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…d67bbacked No | 46c | 111.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 40c | 106.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…f85dbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 74.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed No | 38c | 71.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 76c | 69.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 36c | 61.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…2432backed No | 75c | 60.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +118%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…6399backed No | 71c | 56.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 27c | 42.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6824…d483backed No | 72c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b9…fbf9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2985…1da6backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6690…aa67backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe33…f9ffbacked No | 40c | 25.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3567…ac20backed No | 71c | 22.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 2?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 3?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.