Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc31098a97448ebf99910233b250431f7350d092710cafeb357a274ed5542a00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 17c | 23,953$4,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,042.68 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 38c | 5,430$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,341.78 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 9c | 2,887$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 30c | 2,782$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.38 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 79c | 2,768$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 20c | 2,710$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.67 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 25c | 2,706$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.64 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…8763backed No | 41c | 2,420$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 10c | 2,344$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.68 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 26c | 2,282$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.81 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 68c | 2,099$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 67c | 2,045$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 44c | 2,000$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 1,900$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.89 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 70c | 1,814$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 26c | 1,564$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.71 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 22c | 1,391$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.94 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 22c | 1,315$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.89 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 1,267$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.66 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 12c | 1,105$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.11 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 19c | 1,096$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.97 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 70c | 1,073$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 1cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 40c | 999.96$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.98 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 45c | 999.96$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 50c | 998.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 48c | 964.49$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…83edbacked No | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…476bbacked Yes | 60c | 890.81$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 24c | 874.63$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.97 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 55c | 823.26$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 25c | 743.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed No | 45c | 671.42$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 70c | 642.52$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed No | 14c | 639.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 77c | 623.58$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.58 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 622.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 60c | 596.93$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 26c | 494.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 38c | 491.94$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 64c | 473.17$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 28c | 466.81$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.94 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 58c | 433.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed Yes | 55c | 400$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.84 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 43c | 399.97$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc5…db85backed Yes | 78c | 383.1$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…4300backed Yes | 74c | 381.22$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…4adfbacked Yes | 58c | 380.28$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed Yes | 44c | 376.43$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…67d3backed Yes | 57c | 352.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…9563backed Yes | 55c | 346.39$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…a15ebacked Yes | 77c | 338.09$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed Yes | 25c | 325$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 25c | 325$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…6b3abacked No | 43c | 323$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…a676backed Yes | 58c | 315.22$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed Yes | 55c | 312.79$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…17bcbacked No | 19c | 311.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 45c | 302.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…97e1backed No | 10c | 296.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 69c | 293.24$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0937backed No | 25c | 292.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…61b6backed Yes | 75c | 275$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…6969backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…ed07backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…c118backed Yes | 58c | 245.81$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +140%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…d72dbacked Yes | 57c | 207.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 28c | 199.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.58per pick | 24cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 17c | 198.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…776abacked Yes | 57c | 197.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 46c | 190.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed Yes | 54c | 186.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed Yes | 54c | 186$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 77c | 183.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…411dbacked Yes | 55c | 183.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…c63cbacked Yes | 55c | 181.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed Yes | 55c | 180$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa2…f447backed No | 45c | 178.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…ab39backed Yes | 56c | 178$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…adbebacked Yes | 57c | 176.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…2100backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…5c94backed Yes | 57c | 174.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…9321backed Yes | 56c | 174.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 58c | 173.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 55c | 171.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 71c | 170.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…8d67backed Yes | 59c | 169.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…e927backed Yes | 73c | 163.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe669…502ebacked No | 45c | 158.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 21c | 154.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0955…e141backed Yes | 60c | 153.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +542.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 147.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.