Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46354d4ba5f43ecd6b25ece6230c347f226de2c303742083286716bdd6c16f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 11c | 3,415$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.3 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 25c | 2,852$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.01 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 18c | 1,299$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 17c | 1,257$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.92 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 13c | 1,230$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 1,109$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 70c | 716.51$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 478.66$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 25c | 477.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 17c | 459.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa544…4adfbacked Yes | 33c | 455.29$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…17bcbacked Yes | 17c | 441.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 16c | 436.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 420.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…ab18backed Yes | 37c | 405.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 374.81$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.23 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 23c | 333.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 292.7$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 30c | 284.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 48c | 212.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 211.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 79c | 202.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 197.25$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0937backed Yes | 14c | 179.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 17c | 158.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed Yes | 35c | 144.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…2477backed Yes | 17c | 140.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 133.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 51c | 129.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…776abacked Yes | 79c | 121.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 24c | 117.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 108.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…37c7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…8414backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9027…c975backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…385bbacked Yes | 13c | 98.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 32c | 96.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…cc97backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 15c | 77.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.58per pick | 24cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 67c | 71.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…4300backed Yes | 56c | 70.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…4ac1backed Yes | 20c | 69.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…f813backed Yes | 33c | 67.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…bdcfbacked Yes | 35c | 57.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 58c | 56.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 70c | 56.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 19c | 56.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f681backed Yes | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 36c | 48.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…450dbacked Yes | 33c | 47.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 28c | 41.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0064…26c9backed Yes | 32c | 37.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…15e8backed No | 75c | 33.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 51c | 32.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…7bacbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 55c | 28.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…682ebacked No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 73c | 25.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…f7c0backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…7847backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.