TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,879

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8a2…477cbacked No0c16,231$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe876…1d22backed No2c15,400$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c13,133$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.45712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4fd…3852backed No4c12,187$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfc…98e0backed No0c11,062$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3855…db65backed No4c8,145$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…8ecfbacked No1c6,637$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb798…7030backed No1c6,388$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes75c5,188$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.673228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No8c4,491$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.3410137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked No1c4,479$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.911216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes56c3,792$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.357848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf541…202ebacked No2c2,688$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2536…190fbacked No12c2,407$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2302…f43cbacked No2c2,113$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c2,058$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.681432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c2,025$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.415327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf8b…e543backed No4c1,900$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4db2…da98backed No3c1,780$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c1,534$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.118510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2587…ace3backed No13c1,500$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No12c1,464$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.731717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2223…f7f9backed No2c1,422$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0003…74b9backed No2c1,320$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3398…6a60backed No8c1,295$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a16…ad87backed No3c1,215$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No3c1,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69df…e149backed No3c1,105$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No7c1,050$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+201.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x340b…f8dcbacked No7c1,050$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick10cpaid+93.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No7c1,050$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.570%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No2c1,036$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.12611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No2c1,013$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.66510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes20c978.23$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.2325311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No4c954.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.91039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa872…9fe4backed No14c900$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+135.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c16…4890backed No12c825$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+245.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No8c804.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.31704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c701.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.931074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No24c700$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No19c695.02$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1297548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46e0…9becbacked No3c686.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No3c678.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.01864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed Yes35c674.31$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.442850%14 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No15c666$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No69c663.99$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.456647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No14c650$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5850%4 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+210.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0519…42f2backed No3c650$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1baa…6eb3backed No7c650$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+156.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9c…d2bdbacked No3c600.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked No4c600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No4c577.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.549115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No7c540$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.415217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x213f…a313backed No4c522.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No9c500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.892611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-85.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32b…90c8backed No4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42cd…daf1backed No11c468.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e3…aafebacked No5c456.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc91d…5f61backed No5c443.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed No80c418.04$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.316640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60c1…320abacked No5c400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked No3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c400$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27026835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8966…5d80backed No68c400$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3ed…e29fbacked No4c385.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed No6c361.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c324.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6517232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf4…d1bfbacked No4c311.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+576.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf130…88ddbacked No12c306.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdba…7e5abacked No5c282.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed No6c266.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5815…224abacked No6c258.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No69c256$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.648733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No6c232.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.873525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bad…c7c5backed No10c210.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No52c204.87$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.486547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab4…e073backed Yes67c201.61$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.116752.2%35 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+61.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15214147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…6570backed Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+89%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0633…d517backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked No68c182.59$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9411645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3341…de35backed No6c172.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbe0…ac46backed No70c167.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes33c150.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.548639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8849…f831backed No72c139.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001650%8 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No11c135.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.342313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes77c119.95$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c111.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7426318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9829416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes28c94.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.286640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes25c85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7523435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes32c81.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.396437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee4…9798backed Yes33c59.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.862828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d5…8e7ebacked Yes35c57.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed No69c50.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.062646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf75c…0387backed No77c45.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.