Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f3f7b4f8ddc2c9ef856a7d5b180ec0bb1493cdbc5f9d54bc45dcbe2cd370d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $239,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…aaadbacked No | 3c | 21,199$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 0c | 11,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4216backed No | 10c | 10,162$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 3c | 8,146$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,035$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eab…69cbbacked No | 5c | 4,000$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d4…932ebacked No | 3c | 3,662$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…c6fabacked No | 2c | 2,735$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 2,257$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 67c | 2,235$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.34 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 1c | 2,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…13a7backed No | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 1,921$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 29c | 1,920$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 1,653$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…b343backed No | 7c | 1,504$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,481$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec3…d02dbacked No | 14c | 1,412$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 5c | 1,407$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 9c | 1,321$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed No | 1c | 1,282$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…6aabbacked No | 1c | 1,251$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…28efbacked No | 8c | 1,170$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 13c | 1,016$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.31 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b83…2c44backed No | 5c | 983.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 29c | 948.24$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1499…5025backed No | 8c | 933.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…0852backed No | 11c | 915.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 899.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 11c | 885.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 19c | 836$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 4c | 830.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 813.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.85 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed No | 2c | 779.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…3443backed No | 10c | 757.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 41c | 738.48$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.26 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 735.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 733.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 17c | 725$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked No | 2c | 715.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…1abebacked No | 22c | 710.73$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…bb18backed No | 2c | 670.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 652.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 72c | 646.99$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 75c | 612.29$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.93 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…a2edbacked No | 8c | 607.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 10c | 566.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +243.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 5c | 550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…0acabacked No | 3c | 540.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21a…48f1backed No | 20c | 523.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…9de7backed No | 7c | 505$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…5e8abacked No | 20c | 465.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 8c | 422.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 20c | 420.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 396.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…637ebacked No | 5c | 392.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 3c | 387.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…cb7bbacked No | 7c | 357.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 14c | 353$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…7319backed No | 3c | 350.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…0dc6backed No | 9c | 345.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 24c | 325$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 24c | 325$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6612…992abacked No | 12c | 321.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed No | 9c | 317.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 14c | 316.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.26 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…3529backed No | 12c | 307.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 299.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.39 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d9…150cbacked No | 19c | 283.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7332…7fa1backed No | 7c | 265.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 250.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…dedabacked No | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 5c | 238.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked No | 11c | 211.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…ed83backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…6472backed No | 9c | 178.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 7c | 166.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba77…ccd5backed No | 16c | 163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…0236backed No | 10c | 151.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…d3adbacked No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 146.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 145.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.81 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 12c | 136.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c89…450ebacked No | 16c | 123.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…96d3backed Yes | 16c | 119$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…2044backed No | 16c | 115.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…1fb1backed No | 9c | 113.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…1d72backed No | 11c | 107.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…330bbacked No | 10c | 101.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.