TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$239,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$251,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34ab…3eb5backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de2…aaadbacked No3c21,199$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed No0c11,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…4216backed No10c10,162$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed No3c8,146$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c4,035$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.39631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eab…69cbbacked No5c4,000$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d4…932ebacked No3c3,662$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13b…c6fabacked No2c2,735$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c2,257$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.668510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b92…1761backed Yes67c2,235$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.341580%12 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No1c2,010$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5a3…13a7backed No1c2,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No6c1,921$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.14156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4612…c279backed Yes29c1,920$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No1c1,653$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-80.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…b343backed No7c1,504$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c1,481$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.551432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec3…d02dbacked No14c1,412$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No5c1,407$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5417232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No9c1,321$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.96175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-87.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed No1c1,282$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725b…6aabbacked No1c1,251$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3487…28efbacked No8c1,170$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes13c1,016$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.316640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b83…2c44backed No5c983.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No29c948.24$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2732321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1499…5025backed No8c933.03$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb16…0852backed No11c915.69$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No3c899.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.59432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…cb34backed Yes11c885.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.183636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No19c836$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.684117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed No4c830.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.06520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes11c813.41$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.8525311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed No2c779.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x673b…3443backed No10c757.04$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No41c738.48$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.269475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No2c735.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No9c733.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5430837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No17c725$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.58850%4 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+210.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1fa9…259ebacked No2c715.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbced…1abebacked No22c710.73$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc79e…bb18backed No2c670.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No4c652.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.931039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed No72c646.99$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No75c612.29$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.937843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c9…a2edbacked No8c607.27$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes25c600$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45014147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes10c566.32$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+243.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked No5c550$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.581450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f6…0acabacked No3c540.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd21a…48f1backed No20c523.44$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2806…9de7backed No7c505$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb55…5e8abacked No20c465.17$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No8c422.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No20c420.34$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.851216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No8c396.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6826318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb28a…637ebacked No5c392.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No3c387.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1150…cb7bbacked No7c357.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No14c353$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.332927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…7319backed No3c350.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaacc…0dc6backed No9c345.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed No24c325$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+107.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No24c325$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6612…992abacked No12c321.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4f…4745backed No9c317.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes14c316.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.268639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e4f…3529backed No12c307.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5770%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes9c299.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3912225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34d9…150cbacked No19c283.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7332…7fa1backed No7c265.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c250.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.441074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453e…dedabacked No6c250$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked No5c238.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked No11c211.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce8…ed83backed Yes5c200$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+900%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2082…6472backed No9c178.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No7c166.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+39.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xba77…ccd5backed No16c163$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd60…0236backed No10c151.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+201.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0d…d3adbacked No19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No71c146.47$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6129416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes10c145.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8113128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes12c136.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1207848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c89…450ebacked No16c123.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a0…96d3backed Yes16c119$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0d…2044backed No16c115.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7e…1fb1backed No9c113.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf25…1d72backed No11c107.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea42…330bbacked No10c101.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1baa…6eb3backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+156.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.