Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af035e8e27aa9d450ccbe816c123ccb1488e3c20729972da0283de96fca548b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $399,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,621 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 475 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 0c | 44,416$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 38c | 33,967$12,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,924.56 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 52c | 26,522$13,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,862.52 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 38c | 11,006$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.4 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 54c | 6,283$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 45c | 5,510$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.36 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.99 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 50c | 4,387$2,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.41 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 55c | 4,085$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.04 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 50c | 3,912$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ee…9872backed No | 55c | 3,858$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes | 71c | 3,753$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.83 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…2694backed Yes | 67c | 3,621$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 38c | 3,501$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.74 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed No | 49c | 3,257$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 52c | 3,257$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.83 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 3,111$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.03 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 43c | 3,069$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.8 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 61c | 2,770$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.38 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 2,754$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.38 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…ae82backed No | 45c | 2,650$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.99 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 50c | 2,468$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.19 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 52c | 2,067$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.03 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.98 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…e99cbacked No | 60c | 1,854$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,853$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.18 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed No | 57c | 1,800$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 45c | 1,797$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.35 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 50c | 1,765$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.22 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 40c | 1,667$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.97 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 22c | 1,613$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…428fbacked No | 50c | 1,601$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked Yes | 51c | 1,596$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 21c | 1,561$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.6 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…a5d6backed Yes | 51c | 1,512$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc296…0f22backed Yes | 25c | 1,495$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,466$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12db…e5b1backed Yes | 52c | 1,409$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 54c | 1,379$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.78 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…94b9backed No | 45c | 1,355$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 53c | 1,336$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.1 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 55c | 1,210$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.31 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 42c | 1,203$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 46c | 1,200$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 1,200$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed Yes | 65c | 1,200$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 12c | 1,152$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,147$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.21 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 9c | 1,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5726…10f5backed No | 16c | 1,100$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 53c | 1,077$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.29 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed No | 55c | 1,066$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.69 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…cd39backed Yes | 49c | 1,048$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.35 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2653…b7d7backed No | 3c | 1,038$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…403cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,031$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…87bcbacked Yes | 64c | 1,030$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 45c | 1,019$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,018$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.41 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes | 44c | 1,012$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.69 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 22c | 975.12$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.14 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 52c | 960$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.4 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…a98bbacked Yes | 47c | 957.61$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +379.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 45c | 944$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 51c | 914.99$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.55 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 67c | 900$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 49c | 899.3$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.16 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 27c | 843.55$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.07 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 42c | 836.65$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.81 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…1fa0backed Yes | 48c | 833.1$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.46 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 16c | 825$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 45c | 816.72$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.79 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 37c | 810.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 65c | 809.76$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.51 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 51c | 801.53$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.35 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 27c | 800$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 34c | 778.96$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.31 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…fe79backed Yes | 52c | 774.21$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.21 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 768.72$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.53 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…283fbacked No | 54c | 759.26$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…cdebbacked Yes | 49c | 707.96$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed No | 32c | 700$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Yes | 59c | 695.4$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 669$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 54c | 667.67$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.02 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed No | 75c | 659.28$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.75 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…99c4backed Yes | 63c | 630.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 51c | 599.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 62c | 599.98$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.99 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 43c | 590.21$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.91 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 51c | 589.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 51c | 586.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 51c | 585.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 47c | 579.23$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.91 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.