Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x096091ce8191d44656521aa84f5115dcec044f134a8ed24c34ca4b47fdf03f3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $729,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 522 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 4c | 25,449$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.76 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 22,806$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.73 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,783$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 17,171$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.7 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…20eebacked Yes | 1c | 13,162$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 12c | 11,934$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.47 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,883$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…067cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 59c | 9,609$5,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,903.34 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 6c | 9,390$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.92 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 36c | 8,954$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.72 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 19c | 8,500$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.55 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…22e5backed Yes | 8c | 7,594$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.64 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 52c | 7,587$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.72 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110e…8b11backed Yes | 48c | 7,540$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 64c | 7,324$4,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,654.72 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 53c | 7,297$3,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,416.57 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 14c | 6,431$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.27 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 74c | 6,384$4,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.38 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 47c | 6,210$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.78 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 10c | 5,556$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.56 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 12c | 5,500$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 5,134$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.63 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…350ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…5b3fbacked Yes | 21c | 4,832$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 6c | 4,328$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 52c | 4,311$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.99 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 19c | 4,233$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.48 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 71c | 4,124$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 67c | 4,000$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 8c | 3,906$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.17 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 43c | 3,534$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.39 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 12c | 3,462$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.31 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,336$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.39 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…502dbacked Yes | 66c | 3,321$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 5c | 3,289$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 17c | 3,265$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.88 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…215bbacked No | 64c | 3,140$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…ac49backed No | 78c | 3,085$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 3,030$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.62 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 49c | 2,710$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.1 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…ecb9backed Yes | 11c | 2,694$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes | 73c | 2,549$1,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.58 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 55c | 2,515$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.58 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 76c | 2,501$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.19 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 2,450$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.98 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…7cadbacked Yes | 23c | 2,446$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,318$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 54c | 2,301$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.16 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 71c | 2,291$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.63 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 48c | 2,289$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.91 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…269dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,262$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 1c | 2,102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…1bcfbacked Yes | 37c | 2,091$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,086$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…9eb9backed Yes | 62c | 2,084$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,072$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…7e1cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,014$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,909$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 19c | 1,877$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.44 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 9c | 1,761$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…6f9abacked Yes | 41c | 1,728$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 1,620$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.03 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,608$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…4720backed Yes | 51c | 1,561$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…3660backed Yes | 12c | 1,541$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,539$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…b7a2backed Yes | 8c | 1,526$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +790.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,523$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.33 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 27c | 1,500$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.5 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,496$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…6347backed Yes | 22c | 1,490$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…5b05backed Yes | 14c | 1,484$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 22c | 1,400$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…32e4backed Yes | 25c | 1,348$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d66…05a3backed Yes | 16c | 1,348$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,338$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.48 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…8bb6backed Yes | 27c | 1,318$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,256$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb08d…d759backed Yes | 25c | 1,237$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde61…db4ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,212$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,195$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c6…2264backed No | 79c | 1,189$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 64c | 1,187$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.56 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 53c | 1,141$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.87 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 26c | 1,141$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,125$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70f…5de7backed Yes | 20c | 1,121$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,090$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 48c | 1,069$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.24 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…d53abacked Yes | 18c | 1,024$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf7…5307backed Yes | 42c | 1,015$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.12 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 1,008$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,005$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e5…3263backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa394…89e9backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 56c | 993.3$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.65 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.