Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49d816ab9745e1b45e0db79317e1e7113d6cbdfabde21e0de0a6d42bc87a1d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $444,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $441,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 538 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 13,100$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,725.75 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 11,143$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 8,876$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 12c | 8,568$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.79 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 7,429$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.33 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,001$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 13c | 6,989$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.29 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…20eebacked Yes | 2c | 6,841$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…4393backed No | 76c | 6,707$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 75c | 5,865$4,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.03 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,555$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…7b53backed Yes | 16c | 4,980$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1e…3760backed Yes | 25c | 4,639$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 52c | 4,550$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 76c | 4,412$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.7 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 4,133$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.72 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 26c | 3,981$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.21 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 12c | 3,803$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.18 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 2c | 3,586$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed No | 57c | 3,400$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.31 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e7…9521backed Yes | 31c | 3,258$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…cdb5backed Yes | 2c | 3,125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46b…7c17backed Yes | 23c | 2,991$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,769$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.78 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,650$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e80ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,582$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.98 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 19c | 2,575$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…58a7backed No | 38c | 2,500$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0874backed Yes | 9c | 2,401$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,375$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…1141backed Yes | 43c | 2,324$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…1bfcbacked Yes | 19c | 2,306$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…30f6backed Yes | 2c | 2,294$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 2,200$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 70c | 2,200$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 74c | 2,101$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.14 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 20c | 2,078$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.47 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 77c | 2,074$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.9 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…5b05backed Yes | 10c | 2,040$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8b…95e3backed Yes | 20c | 2,005$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.49 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…cc59backed Yes | 14c | 1,997$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,951$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 61c | 1,944$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.52 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 19c | 1,916$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.35 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 14c | 1,902$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.36 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 29c | 1,868$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.82 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1b27backed Yes | 66c | 1,818$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 1c | 1,810$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 1,708$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…d238backed Yes | 12c | 1,681$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 22c | 1,590$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.71 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 10c | 1,570$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,568$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 27c | 1,483$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.51 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…3859backed Yes | 28c | 1,407$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…5efebacked No | 80c | 1,402$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 17c | 1,318$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.43 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Yes | 25c | 1,300$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 4c | 1,284$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0602…76bbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,282$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbf…9c71backed Yes | 40c | 1,265$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 15c | 1,263$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked No | 77c | 1,249$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.17 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 68c | 1,245$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.47 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…b4babacked Yes | 31c | 1,240$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 76c | 1,225$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.07 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 62c | 1,221$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.05 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 44c | 1,186$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.78 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 21c | 1,185$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 8c | 1,160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,109$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…4a83backed Yes | 46c | 1,097$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…24d7backed Yes | 25c | 1,076$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b7…5cafbacked No | 50c | 1,070$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…ec37backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 19c | 1,046$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…a2aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,042$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b18ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4a59backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.64 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…ca20backed No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7348…226dbacked Yes | 10c | 999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 7c | 970.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 77c | 962.56$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.08 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…b95ebacked Yes | 21c | 961.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 21c | 957.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 32c | 900$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803c…68e4backed Yes | 29c | 896.55$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Yes | 15c | 894.79$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…0f67backed Yes | 36c | 890.16$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…9a34backed Yes | 19c | 881.28$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…59c0backed No | 57c | 869.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +70%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 865.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 69c | 864.44$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.89 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.