Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0a637aac8c056ed81b4016178aeca5ecff627b46ec49524b2a47bcecaf5290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $755,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $755,990 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 614 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 23,196$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.17 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 7c | 23,089$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.82 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 19c | 22,621$4,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,265.56 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 6c | 16,051$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.83 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 2c | 14,207$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.79 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 4c | 14,197$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.6 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 13,781$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.35 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 30c | 13,009$3,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,112.45 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 26c | 12,354$3,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 7c | 10,010$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.8 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…2de5backed No | 66c | 9,075$6,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0638…74a1backed Yes | 16c | 7,378$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 18c | 6,887$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.63 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 60c | 6,861$4,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.18 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 6,664$4,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.29 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…1141backed Yes | 9c | 6,477$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 20c | 6,113$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.71 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…a3f4backed Yes | 6c | 5,950$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,947$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.68 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 70c | 5,761$4,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028.55 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…5738backed Yes | 3c | 5,699$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 50c | 5,681$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.38 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 13c | 5,262$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.9 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…6c06backed Yes | 10c | 5,027$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 28c | 4,911$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.54 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 4,598$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 59c | 4,545$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.13 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 23c | 4,479$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 6c | 4,446$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 40c | 3,704$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 7c | 3,404$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.64 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…5d9bbacked No | 68c | 3,396$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 79c | 3,273$2,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.08 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd5…6be7backed Yes | 16c | 3,271$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…8721backed Yes | 2c | 2,941$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…4ddcbacked No | 68c | 2,908$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 14c | 2,866$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.74 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 2,670$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.65 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.31 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,363$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…e2e8backed Yes | 41c | 2,312$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +272.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 48c | 2,294$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.71 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 54c | 2,262$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 57c | 2,234$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.67 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 2,221$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.32 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe5…a718backed Yes | 40c | 2,199$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…502dbacked Yes | 37c | 2,148$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…78b4backed Yes | 46c | 2,087$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 3c | 2,070$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…d735backed Yes | 39c | 2,051$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 67c | 2,044$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.4 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 37c | 2,004$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d5bfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…5626backed Yes | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 3c | 1,995$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 61c | 1,906$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.28 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 36c | 1,893$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.95 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 9c | 1,851$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 6c | 1,800$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 37c | 1,759$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.12 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 60c | 1,758$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.89 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 77c | 1,707$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…cfc7backed Yes | 13c | 1,685$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 60c | 1,671$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.1 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…d4e8backed No | 69c | 1,655$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…5348backed No | 62c | 1,617$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…4fd2backed No | 62c | 1,608$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5debbacked Yes | 7c | 1,578$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 71c | 1,576$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.22 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,571$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 34c | 1,552$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.86 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 1,549$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,548$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,511$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.5 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc296…0f22backed Yes | 33c | 1,485$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 73c | 1,441$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.1 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd341…b73fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,426$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 10c | 1,404$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 1,388$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.3 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…7ebdbacked Yes | 51c | 1,375$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…cdebbacked Yes | 40c | 1,327$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 33c | 1,316$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.97 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,302$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.91 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 42c | 1,195$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,193$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.73 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 1,142$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.12 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked No | 73c | 1,142$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.73 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 64c | 1,132$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.18 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,121$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…c556backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…d53abacked Yes | 49c | 1,058$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,050$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 44c | 1,028$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.37 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 63c | 1,024$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.67 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.