Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ddfcff3f0b01f2eef9524ccc75460ac5d8140a0b5f65c8a1ef82322410aae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,183 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 24c | 7,430$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.74 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 75c | 3,990$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.7 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 3,684$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.72 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 73c | 3,457$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.24 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…7433backed No | 43c | 2,667$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.75 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 26cpaid | -91%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 21c | 2,180$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.8 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…c177backed Yes | 77c | 2,033$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.99 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 25c | 1,550$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.05 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…a831backed No | 30c | 1,463$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 1,225$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 57c | 1,213$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 56c | 1,138$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.22 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed No | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed No | 42c | 750$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 69c | 741.07$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.38 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 70c | 731.9$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 49c | 700$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed No | 17c | 630$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 25c | 611$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 50c | 601.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 570.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 12c | 570$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 44c | 555$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.85 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 73c | 550.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 78c | 529.42$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…eaabbacked No | 19c | 528.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked No | 25c | 497.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 51c | 485.93$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.41 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 474.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked No | 52c | 460.32$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.49 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 43c | 443.98$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.07 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 80c | 443.98$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…7b26backed No | 23c | 430.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…8beabacked Yes | 72c | 399$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…4afdbacked No | 23c | 373.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 48c | 367.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.9 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 65c | 343.05$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.86 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 78c | 331.75$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 69c | 323.23$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed No | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23f8…d139backed No | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 67c | 300.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 70c | 300$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022b…1dd9backed No | 35c | 291.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…7881backed No | 26c | 284.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…7277backed Yes | 71c | 283.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed No | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…99a1backed No | 23c | 241.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Yes | 45c | 237.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 51c | 225.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 21c | 210.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 200.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…db9fbacked Yes | 48c | 188$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 184.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…4806backed No | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 22c | 178.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 75c | 177.24$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8d45backed Yes | 59c | 168.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 16c | 167.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked No | 22c | 163$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed No | 35c | 161.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 32c | 154.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 153.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked Yes | 74c | 135.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f684backed Yes | 79c | 126.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 22c | 106.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…643fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9392…c94dbacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 99.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 71c | 94.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 72c | 68.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 19c | 60.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 25c | 58.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 56.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed No | 25c | 52.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Yes | 75c | 50.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +12.3wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…7bcebacked No | 20c | 50.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0064…26c9backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…0c7fbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 69c | 47.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 27c | 46.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf098…5c49backed Yes | 43c | 45.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51c…f9f3backed Yes | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…ccdcbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 75c | 38.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…bcbcbacked Yes | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…d6abbacked Yes | 69c | 34.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked Yes | 80c | 33.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 49c | 32.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1148…b5f4backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?this page
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?No won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Yes won
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.