TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6e7b…bcbc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT5261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+89.9%+$14.79
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.82
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+71.1%+$64.66
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.78
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+86.6%+$17.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$46.08
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.39
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.1
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.3
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$15.18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$37.17
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$34.92
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$16.12
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$8.54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$29.11
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+390.6%+$177.45
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$13.41
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$35.76
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$40.89
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.63
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.69
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$32.03
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+65.9%+$12.38
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.43
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.95
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$24.55
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16.48
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
Argentina to score first vs. Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$4.49
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$5.41
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.83
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.75
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.27
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.99
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.9
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.05
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.57
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$14.24
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$24.06
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$371.38
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$6.39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.7
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+30%+$7.43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.84
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$15.95
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$34.43
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+57.2%+$114.34
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+33.3%+$7.33
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29.7
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$16.63
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$29.24
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed ETH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$23.7
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+96.3%+$18.51
All 20 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $70 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.27
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.91
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$31.49
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.1%+$28.82
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.5%+$43.79
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.35
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$13.69
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+40.8%+$24.19
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+300%+$33.21
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.87
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$21.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+109.5%+$104.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$9.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.