TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,767,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,783,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,767,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 6,684 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd1c5…cbd0backed No34c2,627,923$900,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900,068.372548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed No36c2,391,137$870,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870,895.9277152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Yes66c1,932,603$1,266,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666,485.133538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Yes64c1,385,956$887,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498,886.682864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Yes76c1,064,403$810,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254,187.339142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked No36c991,015$357,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357,036.018440.5%34 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Yes63c732,593$465,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267,405.2711642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes67c507,944$339,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,169.731,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No25c492,402$124,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124,012.14,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No31c480,568$148,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148,821.9374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes73c412,181$302,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,411.648,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Yes67c303,746$204,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,236.181060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8428…9210backed No36c261,098$95,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,268.061136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes73c242,502$177,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,340.462,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Yes63c200,000$126,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,999.991844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe549…2d54backed Yes70c200,000$140,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,999.8515552.3%81 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked No2c189,999$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes70c185,119$129,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,625.962,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Yes67c148,651$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,651.318740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Yes65c141,764$91,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,929.59247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d2…731dbacked No32c136,313$43,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,416.877343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked No36c124,380$45,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,307.147941.8%33 W · 46 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Yes67c120,000$80,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,699.937455.4%41 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Yes64c117,188$75,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,187.519644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed No23c116,941$27,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,032.5217840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes69c108,379$74,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,424.2738734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9eb…6a67backed Yes65c106,000$68,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,1602352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+81.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No34c104,624$35,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,133.5956541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2c…d7e6backed Yes71c100,000$70,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,176.122045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes64c99,339$63,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,697.5979231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Yes65c91,128$58,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,306.245749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Yes63c90,791$57,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,143.4817452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed No37c90,000$33,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,30022348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked No34c84,945$29,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,298.099948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes66c81,968$54,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,791.331,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2862…5586backed No32c80,828$25,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,864.973237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe52c…f959backed Yes64c77,057$49,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,740.68875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+40.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No33c76,405$25,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,373.1342541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No32c76,285$24,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,654.033,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked No30c75,000$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,499.8515249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed No31c73,515$22,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,790.596546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c7…c83bbacked No36c72,277$26,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,019.596448.4%31 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No36c71,670$25,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,801.218738%71 W · 116 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes64c70,781$45,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,481.1617949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed No26c66,872$17,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,445.6713533.3%45 W · 90 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed No31c65,000$19,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9507129.6%21 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3da4…367ebacked Yes65c58,462$38,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,461.546943.5%30 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9912…5d4abacked Yes74c56,947$41,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,025.433063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No36c56,391$20,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,300.7429740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c3…600fbacked Yes64c55,000$35,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,8004148.8%20 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6320…7e94backed Yes68c50,000$34,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,999.9938817.5%68 W · 320 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No30c50,000$14,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,880.8127039.6%107 W · 163 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Yes62c50,000$31,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,999.963638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed No34c44,623$15,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,185.9536939.6%146 W · 223 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No33c43,710$14,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,610.667843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3561…d87cbacked No37c42,659$15,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,783.882532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No36c40,560$14,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,601.597345.2%33 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked No36c40,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,4007050%35 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked No36c40,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,399.9915950.3%80 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed No31c39,999$12,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,399.663237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No35c39,453$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,750.291,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No30c39,199$11,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,700.782,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No36c39,000$14,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0404134.1%14 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf6…432fbacked Yes65c37,950$24,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,278966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed No1c37,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37521937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d5…db37backed Yes76c37,288$28,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,770.373458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0f…0e48backed No18c35,359$6,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,215.9339933.1%132 W · 267 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed No37c35,099$12,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,886.4653448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d8…5213backed No29c34,499$10,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,004.622425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d4e…6478backed No19c33,681$6,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,463.558728.7%25 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4587…7bc9backed Yes64c32,389$20,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,659.923850%19 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf387…61c0backed Yes64c31,254$20,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,251.2634964.5%225 W · 124 L+73.5wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+123.1%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x3d60…006abacked Yes64c31,059$19,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,181.281020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-67.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed No36c30,732$11,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,063.526149.2%30 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40d…9eacbacked No33c30,303$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Yes67c30,000$20,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,90013959.7%83 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Yes66c29,820$19,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,177.5336031.7%114 W · 246 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x132f…453bbacked Yes68c28,522$19,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,127.067135.2%25 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes72c26,075$18,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,240.1565835%230 W · 428 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Yes74c25,959$19,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,857.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed No13c25,836$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.0329030.7%89 W · 201 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked No2c25,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010840.7%44 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31cb…a34bbacked No31c24,520$7,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,601.34936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No26c24,012$6,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,192.6230117.9%54 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a66…dcc2backed Yes65c23,077$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,076.927244.4%32 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3a…5f61backed Yes68c23,005$15,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,361.611560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No36c23,000$8,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,3807038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Yes64c22,500$14,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,17516957.4%97 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No36c22,222$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.9221836.2%79 W · 139 L-19.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed No34c21,099$7,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,186.7840239.8%160 W · 242 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes64c20,517$13,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,368.7942043.1%181 W · 239 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed No30c20,452$6,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,135.66929%20 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes70c20,000$14,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9503161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.999642.7%41 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked No12c19,803$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,39866846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x23cd…a835backed Yes64c19,602$12,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,056.712969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No30c18,898$5,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.7929952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No24c18,420$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,506.5124441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1c…d8b5backed Yes68c17,015$11,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,444.8714734%50 W · 97 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No28c16,987$4,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,828.234,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.