Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe50789ae873f89bf41daa5791bb6242d33c37466c7ab19ad8c6ec82633a3e6cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 0c | 27,602$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 51c | 9,641$4,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,745.81 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked Yes | 56c | 6,774$3,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,762.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 68c | 5,846$3,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.11 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…0b8cbacked Yes | 69c | 5,840$4,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,034.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 2c | 4,679$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 22c | 4,636$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.37 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 54c | 4,183$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 42c | 4,049$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703.55 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,118$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc7…2ff6backed No | 71c | 2,206$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Yes | 12c | 2,169$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 40c | 2,165$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.07 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 3c | 2,025$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 42c | 2,000$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.64 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,983$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 1,732$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.57 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 13c | 1,685$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.38 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 52c | 1,629$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.85 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed Yes | 59c | 1,562$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 43c | 1,518$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.94 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 21c | 1,380$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.92 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 71c | 1,346$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.51 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 8c | 1,280$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 24c | 1,179$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.79 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…fef1backed Yes | 73c | 1,044$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 10c | 995$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…50e9backed Yes | 41c | 989.54$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.9 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 16c | 971.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.49 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 74c | 946.24$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 50c | 924$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 11c | 899.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Yes | 18c | 899.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 29c | 867.12$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.59 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 54c | 841.49$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.22 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Yes | 15c | 799.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7204…3b02backed Yes | 26c | 786.17$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 780$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1c…4707backed Yes | 10c | 779.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 758.55$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.27 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 67c | 735.16$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.86 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…61ffbacked Yes | 8c | 703.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked No | 76c | 658.89$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…841abacked Yes | 28c | 639.78$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 595.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 582.47$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.59 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 66c | 527.31$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.02 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…1ce5backed No | 19c | 514.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 63c | 509.82$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 64c | 470.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.92 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 35c | 443.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.05 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 23c | 429.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 52c | 412.43$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.3 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…c0febacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 56c | 400$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 45c | 393.62$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.62 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 36c | 353.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.98 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 17c | 353.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 15c | 350$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 332.64$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 57c | 325$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…df11backed Yes | 31c | 318.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 25c | 317.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Yes | 64c | 312.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 8c | 312.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 307.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 277.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 272.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 22c | 268.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.71 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 24c | 263.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.99 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 52c | 253.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68d…eab5backed Yes | 11c | 246.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 32c | 240$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 12c | 234.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Yes | 37c | 234.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed Yes | 56c | 233.12$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.19 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 58c | 231.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 61c | 230.57$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 42c | 219.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 11c | 209.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 48c | 209.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 39c | 208$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 203.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 46c | 203.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 75c | 202.65$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…1bfabacked No | 63c | 196.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 38c | 191.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…becfbacked No | 57c | 184.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 33c | 182.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.