Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea088d2cfa887c5985be2b3feea2ea5ef8fdede3933ec0a415d1de3813a48a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 26c | 13,130$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,473.72 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 72c | 5,161$3,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 4c | 4,044$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 77c | 3,526$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.65 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 38c | 3,209$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 25c | 2,296$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.97 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 8c | 2,266$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.33 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 14c | 2,243$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 2,241$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…7822backed No | 13c | 2,212$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 26c | 2,098$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 7c | 2,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 70c | 1,962$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.89 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 15c | 1,915$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.74 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 17c | 1,867$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 20c | 1,844$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.72 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 8c | 1,728$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 38c | 1,637$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.94 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 1,600$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 74c | 1,536$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.33 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 78c | 1,454$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.75 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 37c | 1,200$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.7 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 28c | 1,116$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.27 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8df3backed No | 24c | 1,106$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 70c | 1,104$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.51 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 15c | 1,095$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 924$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 78c | 894.44$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 877.44$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.37 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 71c | 757.94$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.07 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…5487backed Yes | 72c | 753.72$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 49c | 731.4$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 17c | 699.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 36c | 670.69$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 67c | 639.44$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.49 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 24c | 599.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 73c | 568.88$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed No | 21c | 564.93$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 15c | 548.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…3921backed No | 16c | 528.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…07b3backed No | 10c | 515.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…b7afbacked No | 21c | 503.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 20cpaid | +280.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…6e55backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 30c | 483.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 72c | 458.01$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 74c | 455.21$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.34 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…24d7backed Yes | 72c | 416.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 19c | 399.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…e011backed No | 26c | 382.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 79c | 381.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 7c | 378.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 12c | 370$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed No | 17c | 363.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0424backed Yes | 77c | 362.45$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed No | 18c | 331.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 9c | 301.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2ebebacked Yes | 68c | 297.6$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 8c | 289.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 76c | 281.85$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 65c | 279.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 73c | 276.67$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked No | 17c | 274.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 12c | 272.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 9c | 271.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 6c | 268.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked No | 25c | 266.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 21c | 265.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 28c | 260$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…906ebacked No | 27c | 257.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 254.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 22c | 243.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3d…7f10backed No | 21c | 238.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 7c | 228$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 221$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…e1bfbacked No | 26c | 213.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…5e52backed Yes | 75c | 201.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…fe3abacked Yes | 78c | 199.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 51c | 196.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…099bbacked No | 10c | 184.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 63c | 180.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.81 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 12c | 168.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 66c | 168.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 18c | 161.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2e06backed Yes | 52c | 160.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 46c | 157.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 79c | 144.9$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 22c | 142.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.