Middle East · resolved market
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb9f5707eabf3c272097196b137d841fda958ec64aecff36283cc448a7e3e40b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $967,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $986,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $967,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8544…6e35backed No | 0c | 299,887$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 218,029$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed No | 0c | 58,451$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 39c | 12,999$5,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,096.96 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 10,071$7,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.69 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed No | 17c | 6,774$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.47 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 26c | 6,597$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,863.28 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…444ebacked Yes | 74c | 6,490$4,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed No | 19c | 6,132$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.81 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked No | 41c | 6,129$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.07 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 30c | 5,220$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.83 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 14c | 5,168$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 49c | 4,581$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.49 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbc…e435backed Yes | 22c | 4,285$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,339.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 46c | 4,262$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.43 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…2b9bbacked No | 15c | 4,221$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 74c | 3,781$2,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.92 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 3,776$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.49 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 62c | 3,670$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 27c | 3,305$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.08 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 16c | 3,249$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 65c | 3,088$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.16 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 10c | 2,500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,466$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.66 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed No | 14c | 2,430$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.49 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed No | 29c | 2,234$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.53 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes | 69c | 2,176$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.81 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 29c | 2,075$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.03 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e69…7f76backed No | 19c | 1,953$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 75c | 1,945$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.18 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed No | 17c | 1,805$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.34 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…ef91backed No | 22c | 1,746$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 12c | 1,600$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,546$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.94 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 25c | 1,503$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.99 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…72f7backed Yes | 4c | 1,462$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +917%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 78c | 1,339$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.37 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 10c | 1,312$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.31 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed No | 37c | 1,300$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…b0d6backed No | 28c | 1,295$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 60c | 1,293$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.12 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 61c | 1,262$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.76 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,241$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.38 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 2c | 1,210$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +307.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 14c | 1,177$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.28 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 54c | 1,174$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.81 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 62c | 1,161$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 60c | 1,159$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.49 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…8317backed No | 3c | 1,110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…34eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,109$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +824.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,082$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.11 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…e35fbacked No | 5c | 1,050$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 25c | 1,047$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.37 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed No | 16c | 1,019$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked No | 1c | 1,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.8 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.6 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 56c | 970.57$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 80c | 939.82$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 33c | 938.33$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 32c | 937$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.35 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed Yes | 64c | 907.82$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.37 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 51c | 902.11$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.63 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 18c | 879.82$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.02 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 50c | 850$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.5 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…b21ebacked Yes | 28c | 834.97$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 25c | 811.46$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.62 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 43c | 799.26$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.31 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 31c | 751.21$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.04 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 28c | 727.57$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.62 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed No | 46c | 694.93$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.04 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed No | 15c | 692.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 12c | 688.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…8964backed Yes | 22c | 668.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +345.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 40c | 639.57$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.6 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…a9efbacked No | 27c | 637.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…106cbacked Yes | 26c | 616.64$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +278.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…0188backed Yes | 50c | 607.04$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 22c | 588.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 57c | 586.99$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.03 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…e0c0backed Yes | 35c | 584.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked No | 45c | 582.3$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.7 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked No | 48c | 569.18$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1986backed Yes | 12c | 560.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +255.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 19c | 518.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.56 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 64c | 511.6$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 34c | 509.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.92 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 14c | 500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed Yes | 60c | 500$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…7b44backed No | 34c | 468.13$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed No | 70c | 450$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 22c | 444.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.05 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 29c | 440.21$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.55 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5662…9aaabacked Yes | 21c | 434.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Yes | 49c | 432.52$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 70c | 430.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 56c | 427.23$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked No | 31c | 424.29$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 50c | 405.44$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?this page
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 11?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?No won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?Yes won
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.