TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5605…a9ef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2462.5%15 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$315
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$100.8
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$528Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$146.66
France vs. England: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.77
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$630.14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$690
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$61.5
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$199.5
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$12
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$522.55
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$384
Germany leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$776Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$258.75
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,595Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$531.83
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.21
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$345
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,010Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$990
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$105
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$240
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,138Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+27%+$307.15
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.78
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.62
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$297
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$586Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$585.66
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.2
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$281.4
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$118.48
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.68
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+223.3%+$533.21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15,797Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$4,850.44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,729Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,728.95
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$73.6
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+44%+$91.64
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$574Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$573.79
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+207.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$749Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+207.6%+$1,554.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Islam Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,094Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$280.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jeff Bezos Announced as New Liverpool Owner in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$201
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$490.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.