Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86f43746cbd692719483aaeedc657eef89d9ffb91d6ffceacb1edf533e049516
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,796,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,317,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,796,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,591 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf020…3212backed No | 80c | 132,713$105,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,786.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 15c | 107,933$16,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,295.06 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 17c | 65,173$11,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,188.62 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 62,445$7,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,900.9 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…d9f6backed Yes | 12c | 58,705$7,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,299.17 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 17c | 57,189$9,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,640.72 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 13c | 46,954$6,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,274.25 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 12c | 43,344$5,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,027.3 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 11c | 37,413$4,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,064.22 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 19c | 36,000$6,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,751.55 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 18c | 31,646$5,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,770.85 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 21c | 27,256$5,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,844.13 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 1c | 26,544$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 15c | 24,229$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.1 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 2c | 23,392$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 18c | 23,000$4,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,246.44 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 13c | 21,406$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.26 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 21c | 21,140$4,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,438.44 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 17c | 19,894$3,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354.51 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 7c | 19,668$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.27 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 13c | 18,547$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.69 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 16,895$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.07 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…f7e5backed Yes | 4c | 16,275$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 15,989$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.84 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 16c | 15,112$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.43 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 14,567$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 12c | 14,356$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.21 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 18c | 14,206$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…a201backed Yes | 15c | 13,878$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 6c | 13,644$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 13,613$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.99 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 79c | 13,240$10,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,765.95 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…3ccdbacked No | 78c | 13,000$10,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 21c | 11,920$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.14 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 11,781$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.93 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 21c | 11,249$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.01 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 7c | 10,998$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 18c | 10,807$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.16 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Yes | 11c | 10,684$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.77 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 9c | 10,633$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.6 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 5c | 10,334$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…bdbfbacked No | 76c | 10,307$7,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 0c | 9,833$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…afefbacked Yes | 20c | 9,536$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 18c | 9,500$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.71 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 13c | 9,246$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.64 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 8c | 9,205$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.92 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes | 3c | 9,203$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 9c | 9,128$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.51 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 10c | 8,002$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.21 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes | 14c | 7,777$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de6…d677backed Yes | 18c | 7,681$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 3c | 7,560$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.14 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 12c | 7,528$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.89 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 16c | 7,327$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.18 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…d5edbacked Yes | 4c | 7,267$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…9386backed Yes | 8c | 7,090$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 11c | 7,043$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.5 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 18c | 7,004$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.95 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 19c | 7,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 7c | 7,000$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 8c | 6,645$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.62 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…2e69backed Yes | 11c | 6,261$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 12c | 6,025$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.99 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 17c | 5,815$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.23 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 73c | 5,811$4,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.97 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 20c | 5,778$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…d7febacked Yes | 1c | 5,596$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 18c | 5,512$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.23 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a2…8601backed No | 78c | 5,485$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 5,253$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.99 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 18c | 5,159$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.32 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 20c | 5,118$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.55 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,115$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…f8e8backed Yes | 19c | 5,003$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.54 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.47 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.36 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 11c | 4,948$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.2 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 4,942$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.64 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 19c | 4,718$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.18 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 9c | 4,619$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.71 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed No | 78c | 4,612$3,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.7 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -71%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 3c | 4,445$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 28c | 4,414$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.75 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Yes | 17c | 4,401$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.09 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 16c | 4,394$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.76 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,147$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +812.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 4,145$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.56 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb712…7069backed Yes | 23c | 4,004$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 20c | 4,000$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 27c | 4,000$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,971$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.33 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,804$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.88 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 19c | 3,796$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.54 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,728$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.87 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 16c | 3,666$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Yes | 9c | 3,480$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 78c | 3,238$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.07 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.