Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91a0b4ff72ad76f01abf986e18aa8d226a5172760fffdc3687b78c580692bca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,235,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,090,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,235,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,006 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 7c | 34,894$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 34,606$3,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055.84 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 3c | 22,195$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.96 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 4c | 21,111$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.55 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 18,725$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.21 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 12,237$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked Yes | 6c | 10,952$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.95 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 12c | 9,836$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 71c | 9,493$6,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.45 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,151$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.48 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,738$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.65 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,700$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.03 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 67c | 7,116$4,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370.81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 3c | 7,032$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,814$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked Yes | 32c | 6,797$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 74c | 6,783$5,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.1 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 3c | 6,495$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 23c | 6,464$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.99 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 12c | 6,199$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 75c | 5,511$4,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.37 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 32c | 5,324$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.9 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed No | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 31c | 4,804$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.86 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,679$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…36c6backed No | 66c | 4,560$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…4eb6backed Yes | 1c | 4,286$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 12c | 4,103$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.68 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 34c | 4,031$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.5 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 31c | 4,000$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.96 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,864$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.24 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 3,727$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 13c | 3,713$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 13c | 3,704$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.73 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 1c | 3,511$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 3,434$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.83 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 12c | 3,414$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.86 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,302$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.59 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 25c | 3,293$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.48 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 6c | 3,200$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 3,189$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Yes | 28c | 3,174$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Yes | 19c | 3,077$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 5c | 3,071$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.94 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 3,030$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.63 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de6…d677backed Yes | 35c | 3,025$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 5c | 2,966$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…a201backed Yes | 23c | 2,845$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 29c | 2,744$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.88 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,726$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed No | 74c | 2,636$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.93 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf678…a255backed No | 74c | 2,564$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 67c | 2,509$1,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.88 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 62c | 2,440$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.19 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 33c | 2,340$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.8 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes | 30c | 2,265$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086e…5a41backed Yes | 13c | 2,255$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 29c | 2,175$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.82 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,015$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 16c | 2,013$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.5 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 2,002$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.3 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 67c | 1,999$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.61 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 1,943$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 22c | 1,875$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.46 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…b30ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,871$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,832$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,800$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 9c | 1,793$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,787$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.9 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 27c | 1,714$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.73 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 33c | 1,703$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 13c | 1,555$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,550$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed Yes | 26c | 1,543$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.24 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 2c | 1,485$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 1,483$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.84 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f7…e2e5backed Yes | 17c | 1,451$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 1,418$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…d19bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,415$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…6108backed Yes | 37c | 1,368$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 1,346$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,310$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…0b35backed Yes | 28c | 1,310$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 40c | 1,300$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 32c | 1,272$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.84 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede0…32bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,231$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…2b85backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +353.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 66c | 1,178$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.52 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…e797backed No | 75c | 1,155$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…f022backed Yes | 28c | 1,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Yes | 11c | 1,007$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…f5f4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7828…e558backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.