Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45a4c5c01082f8c727add1be91ab92d6c4fb782dddc6ec0e92b7b992fa62202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $269,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $260,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 50c | 10,306$5,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,198.8 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 23c | 10,244$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,364.62 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 35c | 9,983$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,516.6 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 51c | 7,793$3,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.34 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes | 47c | 7,356$3,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,883.11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 45c | 5,932$2,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,270.68 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 20c | 5,901$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.1 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 4,792$3,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,654.01 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 35c | 4,700$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.99 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 36c | 4,197$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 2,869$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.4 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…bdd2backed Yes | 58c | 2,636$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 64c | 2,612$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.79 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 62c | 2,288$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.55 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 27c | 2,250$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.1 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,994$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…40a3backed Yes | 78c | 1,966$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 38c | 1,890$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.02 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 28c | 1,885$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,714$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +46%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 1,690$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.39 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,587$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.05 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 65c | 1,569$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.35 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,334$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.35 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed No | 15c | 1,330$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…dfdabacked Yes | 14c | 1,261$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +227.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…d6f8backed Yes | 47c | 1,250$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 68c | 1,200$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 38c | 1,199$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.45 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7bfbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,160$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.82 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…2673backed Yes | 35c | 1,137$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 19c | 1,130$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 18c | 1,125$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 62c | 1,077$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.56 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 59c | 1,038$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 1,036$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c8…fb0fbacked No | 9c | 1,007$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…5bbabacked No | 65c | 995.15$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes | 63c | 987.89$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.91 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 50c | 865.53$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.29 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 72c | 832.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.09 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 32c | 804.95$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.36 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 746.63$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.13 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 77c | 728.78$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.47 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 722$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.57 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 67c | 653.14$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…9eb9backed No | 18c | 630.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 9c | 610.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked No | 66c | 577.37$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…e2b0backed Yes | 46c | 572.74$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.64 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 42c | 569.07$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.39 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…b413backed No | 53c | 566.95$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.61 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…ee00backed No | 16c | 547.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 61c | 542$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.62 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…abe1backed No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 77c | 521.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 34c | 521.74$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.37 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…bb9cbacked No | 29c | 509.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…a9efbacked Yes | 75c | 473.04$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc90…90b0backed No | 74c | 468$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 465.51$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.21 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 462.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 26c | 461.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 453.84$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 64c | 434.93$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 50c | 424.24$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.44 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 66c | 417.36$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 58c | 413.77$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.64 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed No | 5c | 408.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…e0b2backed No | 37c | 401.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 72c | 400$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 62c | 400$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 397.38$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.88 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 33c | 397.13$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.78 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 52c | 383.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.64 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 10c | 382.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 379.34$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.39 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed No | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…4657backed Yes | 29c | 367.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 69c | 363.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 61c | 354.9$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked No | 65c | 351.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 55c | 347.43$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 345.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 75c | 341.7$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 46c | 329.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 26c | 323.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.24 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 18c | 319.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 64c | 311.76$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…ef50backed Yes | 68c | 308.37$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +326.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026?No won
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.