Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7baccbc042e675e1fe844f976443a6e8a9d3de5b3a18a4191e20288c566471f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,667$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,659$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…7f50backed Yes | 4c | 2,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 5c | 2,292$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…6ce4backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,751$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,015$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 3c | 793.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…8387backed Yes | 4c | 714.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 642.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 3c | 598.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 590.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 4c | 434.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 3c | 405.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 348.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 15c | 312.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 5c | 307.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 289.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Yes | 6c | 204.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 15, 2026?this page
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.