TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes21c5,960$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.147334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes13c5,117$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.492850%14 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0eac…140abacked Yes15c5,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+80.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes16c3,400$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9848630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes12c3,085$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.916526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes21c2,922$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.8216131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x724b…81bdbacked Yes22c2,110$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40011944.5%53 W · 66 L-17.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes17c1,922$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.664734%16 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3d70…706fbacked Yes20c1,643$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed No78c1,633$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.24839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes16c1,557$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5612432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes4c1,506$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.145071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes18c1,503$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.729027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked Yes20c1,485$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.473855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,208$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.941,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07df…8be6backed Yes13c908.55$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.612035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc50…7e68backed Yes19c834.14$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.491650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes19c751.92$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No76c700$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1661442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c657$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.763717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes12c598.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7038237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes4c570.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.823588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e0…4466backed Yes21c550$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10028750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes6c464.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9542311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes7c445$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes8c432.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No78c426.21$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7716541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c415.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.724625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed No78c404.99$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes30c381.92$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1136626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes7c372.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.884769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c304.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.454195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed73…4465backed No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.253360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf01…c782backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x132d…b771backed Yes21c293.07$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes24c286.9$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9922547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed Yes18c277.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8911738.5%45 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd16e…c43ebacked Yes23c259.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid+428.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c2…adaabacked Yes19c249$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab39…c22fbacked Yes15c243.46$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.91728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes9c212.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.131039.7%10 W · 93 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb911…8bb6backed Yes16c211.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.83837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+116.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408038.8%31 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e8e…4cacbacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423333.3%11 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0799…725cbacked Yes29c172.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No80c164.32$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0719056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No65c161.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.38750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed Yes19c154.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3313538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b7…0704backed No79c153.46$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.726662.1%41 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No80c153.09$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0924759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a90…03b5backed Yes21c142.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+262.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dae…e45abacked Yes19c140.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.842941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x902c…9d51backed No74c135.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.21353.8%7 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick69cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes38c125$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5234.3%1 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-88.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8fdb…6bfebacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes22c121.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.715127.5%14 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Yes21c103.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.839536.8%35 W · 60 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked No69c102.44$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.137445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes17c101.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2532243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26ad…8c4ebacked No77c99.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No80c99.2$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2628827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No65c94.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5125843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c92.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4539621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes23c65.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.29520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed Yes21c64.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.756144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480c…a36abacked Yes35c57.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa2b…bb8abacked Yes26c50.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.262821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…e2c0backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102572%18 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed No72c38.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7414854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d1…439ebacked No76c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.162676.9%20 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes32c31.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1936634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…d3a5backed Yes37c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51a2…051bbacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.778760.9%53 W · 34 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bd3…96a7backed No73c29.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.911957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+33.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1bff…1bf5backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…32c0backed No68c20.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa52…3607backed No76c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.84158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x966b…2ee6backed No76c16.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.083066.7%20 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No66c16.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.649981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5314…323ebacked No78c14.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.11250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.