Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1209b73e1ce9ebb4905dad781496385b5102c048889502b174ed733de1506a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,559,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,578,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,559,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 838 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 20c | 114,507$23,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,118.84 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 33c | 81,498$27,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,234.07 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 74c | 64,832$47,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,960.74 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 11c | 46,952$5,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,866 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 29c | 46,772$13,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,269.09 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 52c | 42,977$22,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,404.97 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 43c | 41,690$18,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,643.33 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 2c | 37,831$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.39 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 36c | 36,038$12,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,206.08 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 63c | 32,917$20,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,272.6 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 31c | 32,205$9,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,315.74 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes | 40c | 29,569$11,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,790.45 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 35c | 29,438$10,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,134.88 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 78c | 28,276$21,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,920.74 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 13c | 24,795$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,609.03 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 24c | 24,000$5,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,185 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 23,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 23c | 22,779$5,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,450.82 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 56c | 22,342$12,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,841.25 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 21,033$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,761.34 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 21,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 29c | 18,262$5,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,035.62 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 39c | 17,266$6,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,482.12 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 28c | 16,193$4,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,721.49 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 30c | 15,454$4,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,799.53 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6000…f302backed No | 60c | 15,000$8,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,950 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 43c | 14,944$6,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,498.92 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked Yes | 22c | 14,782$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,466.13 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 25c | 14,649$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,982.95 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 16c | 14,439$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,065.13 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 25c | 14,173$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,532.49 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed Yes | 28c | 14,154$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,153.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 15c | 13,838$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,768.78 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 24c | 13,262$3,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,116.52 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 30c | 12,946$3,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,095 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed No | 78c | 12,828$9,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,968.06 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 62c | 12,581$7,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,855.2 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 39c | 11,328$4,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,934.5 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 26c | 11,029$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,111.7 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 10,830$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.8 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 58c | 10,004$5,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,215.12 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 19c | 9,393$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,622.93 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed No | 1c | 9,272$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 58c | 9,190$5,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,888.14 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 68c | 9,170$6,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.01 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 22c | 9,027$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,055.43 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 49c | 8,774$4,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,512.57 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 12c | 8,716$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,652.2 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 16c | 8,432$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.84 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 20c | 8,320$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,667.5 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…64acbacked No | 74c | 7,699$5,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,735.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 35c | 7,493$2,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,876.63 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 32c | 7,440$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,038.25 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 71c | 7,348$5,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.11 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 24c | 7,251$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,507.75 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 32c | 7,198$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.54 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 43c | 7,188$3,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,092.5 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e17…9d3cbacked No | 56c | 7,165$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 24c | 7,000$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,310 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 68c | 7,000$4,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,765 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 76c | 6,904$5,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,215.47 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed Yes | 26c | 6,725$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,995.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 54c | 6,607$3,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036.2 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 31c | 6,571$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,555.16 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed No | 75c | 6,468$4,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,863 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 25c | 6,164$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.57 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 6,114$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,243.67 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 73c | 6,000$4,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,374.98 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 69c | 5,931$4,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,107.86 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 30c | 5,782$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,047.71 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 66c | 5,731$3,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,768.03 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 44c | 5,683$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,194.27 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 73c | 5,600$4,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 70c | 5,362$3,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,771.49 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed No | 68c | 5,300$3,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,619.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…4c09backed Yes | 26c | 5,292$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.28 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…2126backed No | 67c | 5,211$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 34c | 5,209$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.58 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 18c | 5,140$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd083…d678backed No | 0c | 5,021$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +477.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf500…7d09backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 51c | 5,000$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.99 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed Yes | 71c | 4,973$3,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.06 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 34c | 4,970$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.84 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 31c | 4,941$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.77 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 27c | 4,938$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.97 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6be1backed No | 74c | 4,900$3,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,626 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Yes | 35c | 4,834$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 35c | 4,765$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,111.79 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 77c | 4,685$3,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,595.26 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 66c | 4,678$3,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,107.34 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 63c | 4,646$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.62 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 39c | 4,613$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.55 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 55c | 4,588$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.76 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 58c | 4,583$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.19 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 26c | 4,500$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,310 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 68c | 4,500$3,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 31c | 4,471$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071.14 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 27c | 4,465$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.8 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 38c | 4,400$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,738.2 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.