Middle East · resolved market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1600d32f2f6c318c11436529c522bc3004164d997a4657feb02541d34e09423e

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $326,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $332,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,131 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 346 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x60a9…5a71backed No	34c	23,866$8,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,208.57	382	37.7%144 W · 238 L	+16.4wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	51c	23,296$11,831 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,464.92	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No	40c	17,720$7,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,043.67	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	52c	16,360$8,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,891.29	74	62.2%46 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes	69c	10,550$7,305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,245.76	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Yes	42c	8,613$3,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,992.73	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+5.0wins	+0.33per pick	40cpaid	+116.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0a33…3a4fbacked Yes	47c	7,562$3,574 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,987.64	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…dea6backed Yes	36c	7,530$2,706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,824.5	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No	58c	7,429$4,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,297.19	353	47%166 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	28c	5,777$1,598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,598.38	197	39.1%77 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0652…9134backed No	49c	5,517$2,724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,723.66	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-9.9wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd4ab…8253backed No	4c	5,489$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed No	30c	5,380$1,629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,629.32	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	49c	5,236$2,577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,576.71	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes	57c	4,571$2,589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,982.36	118	59.3%70 W · 48 L	+14.5wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	64c	4,036$2,598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,438.11	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No	58c	3,776$2,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,199.82	212	59.9%127 W · 85 L	+21.8wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	79c	3,670$2,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$770.8	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked No	45c	3,578$1,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,610.1	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes	42c	3,450$1,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,986.26	409	39.6%162 W · 247 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No	32c	3,400$1,084 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,084	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	48c	3,000$1,429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,429.38	217	26.7%58 W · 159 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No	60c	2,511$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	91	39.6%36 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No	27c	2,500$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.01	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	48c	2,470$1,174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,295.57	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Yes	50c	2,222$1,111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e17…9d3cbacked No	49c	2,170$1,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,062.53	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	60c	2,154$1,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,298.54	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1eb8…0782backed No	48c	2,067$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No	28c	2,030$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.62	366	34.4%126 W · 240 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafcc…fb70backed Yes	65c	2,011$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.94	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	44c	2,000$880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,120	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed No	45c	1,835$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.54	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	64c	1,830$1,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$663.33	178	39.9%71 W · 107 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	48c	1,800$860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$940.29	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes	62c	1,753$1,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$663.36	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No	47c	1,741$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.55	123	41.5%51 W · 72 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes	48c	1,722$829 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$893.49	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+5.7wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4bf4…7021backed Yes	41c	1,623$665 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$957.57	147	43.5%64 W · 83 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae73…3801backed Yes	54c	1,600$864 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+115.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No	50c	1,595$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	149	44.3%66 W · 83 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes	51c	1,523$779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$743.48	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9c…c182backed No	16c	1,510$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.81	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No	34c	1,400$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473	185	31.9%59 W · 126 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	51c	1,395$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.65	217	51.6%112 W · 105 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c9…36fcbacked No	59c	1,380$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.2	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	48c	1,244$593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.56	360	35.3%127 W · 233 L	-30.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No	60c	1,206$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.14	89	51.7%46 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	3c	1,205$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.83	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	40c	1,125$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.04	52	59.6%31 W · 21 L	+4.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	19c	1,086$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.22	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed No	27c	1,078$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+5.6wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No	57c	1,053$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+5.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes	51c	1,042$527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.9	107	45.8%49 W · 58 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	40c	1,007$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.1	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0787…0ca3backed Yes	79c	1,000$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.79	90	54.4%49 W · 41 L	+8.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed No	34c	1,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No	17c	1,000$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	126	38.1%48 W · 78 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fab…d73cbacked No	51c	980.31$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-5.3wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes	45c	968.99$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.64	73	37%27 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2e…f00ebacked Yes	44c	921.09$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.09	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…ab3abacked Yes	36c	905.84$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.5	166	50%83 W · 83 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes	50c	899.99$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.99	98	48%47 W · 51 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef7a…db70backed No	55c	881.83$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.72	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.9wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	35c	863.53$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.88	589	27.2%160 W · 429 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	50c	857.86$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.86	241	49.4%119 W · 122 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16af…12a5backed Yes	61c	847.99$517 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.24	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+5.2wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fa6…610fbacked Yes	53c	820$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2120…2647backed No	30c	755.42$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.07	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2132…7657backed No	54c	752.62$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.91	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Yes	56c	728$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.43	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes	73c	714.5$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.43	115	59.1%68 W · 47 L	+7.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	39c	700$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes	44c	668.38$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376.21	186	39.8%74 W · 112 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes	56c	666.34$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.26	155	41.9%65 W · 90 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes	45c	657.04$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$363.9	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+5.4wins	+0.42per pick	43cpaid	+83.7%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0x38fe…4c18backed No	47c	631.81$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.72	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+3.1wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked No	48c	625$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.24per pick	37cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed Yes	60c	615$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.24	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed Yes	56c	613.74$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.5	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No	59c	610.18$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.01	138	55.8%77 W · 61 L	+10.8wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No	51c	600$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No	33c	590.83$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.14	110	37.3%41 W · 69 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No	44c	586.27$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.96	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8f…ed9abacked No	54c	556.92$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-4.7wins	-0.47per pick	67cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x606f…1083backed No	66c	548.56$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.92	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…73cfbacked Yes	41c	545$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.07	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes	50c	539.92$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.93	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-41%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	60c	537.44$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.49	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No	47c	519$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.52	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	+11.5wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes	54c	500$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No	35c	500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	226	27.9%63 W · 163 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed No	21c	500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7c5…c20abacked No	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked No	61c	491.47$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	43	67.4%29 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45ea…e966backed No	39c	473.11$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.13	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed No	32c	466.49$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.9	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0200…275dbacked Yes	41c	455.28$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.28	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.41per pick	39cpaid	+78.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed Yes	48c	424.73$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.86	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…f88ebacked No	44c	415.28$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.9	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event