Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ad79d04f2dc95740b512d657957bf16b521342ae41be894fa44c56b8b1d1ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,382,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,253,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,382,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 6c | 69,866$4,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,369.46 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 41,325$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.21 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 6c | 35,768$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.54 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 28c | 29,605$8,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,296.44 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 2c | 28,544$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.41 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 2c | 25,447$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.41 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 3c | 23,617$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 4c | 22,624$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.38 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 22,609$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.97 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 25c | 19,934$4,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,891.36 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 16,862$11,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,594.69 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 19c | 16,833$3,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177.73 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 6c | 16,660$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.26 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 16,431$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,556.06 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…6a50backed Yes | 4c | 13,523$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 13,503$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 14c | 12,815$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.93 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 1c | 11,329$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 6c | 11,000$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.99 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 7c | 9,908$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.24 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…e157backed Yes | 4c | 9,700$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,225$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 3c | 8,867$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.2 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 8,770$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.07 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,012$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 7,632$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 3c | 7,579$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.53 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 7c | 7,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 5c | 7,057$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.65 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,856$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Yes | 2c | 6,210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 6c | 6,158$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.46 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 20c | 6,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 5,367$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 74c | 5,160$3,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.34 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 7c | 5,032$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.49 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…0782backed No | 40c | 5,014$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,013.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…7cafbacked Yes | 5c | 4,823$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes | 9c | 4,791$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 78c | 4,258$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.43 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 1c | 4,175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 7c | 3,646$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.69 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,492$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.39 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 7c | 3,130$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.04 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 11c | 3,092$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.5 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…309ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,021$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +497%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…c179backed Yes | 8c | 2,960$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…cc32backed No | 35c | 2,889$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.49 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,841$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…ec3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 11c | 2,798$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.33 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,747$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked No | 38c | 2,662$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.19 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 4c | 2,606$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c6…73a7backed Yes | 7c | 2,600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 78c | 2,580$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.7 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 2,443$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 2,397$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.85 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 52c | 2,363$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.07 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…1ec0backed Yes | 9c | 2,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 4c | 2,281$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 10c | 2,268$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,266$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,100$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 6c | 2,036$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,007$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…d825backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +844.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…ab88backed Yes | 5c | 1,987$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1152backed No | 22c | 1,941$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73a…e71fbacked No | 33c | 1,900$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +76%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,829$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.9 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…f655backed No | 34c | 1,736$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 2c | 1,723$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +106%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 32c | 1,706$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.43 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…4fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,700$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 1,699$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 6c | 1,675$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 74c | 1,672$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.36 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 37c | 1,668$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.57 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…ed29backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 39c | 1,600$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +148%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…1d71backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 1c | 1,462$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 1,458$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…3ef5backed No | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 7c | 1,309$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…b417backed Yes | 8c | 1,299$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 5c | 1,281$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.