TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf73a…e71f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 64 out of 100; worst Champions League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$375.47
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.75
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.16
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+112.3%+$166.66
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$163.64
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$141.07
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$21.18
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$35.89
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT1586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.34per pick53cpaid+76%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+120.1%+$552.4
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,891Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$2,331.05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+115.4%+$242.38
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$538.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$50.91
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+203%+$1,273
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+214.1%+$856.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$231.22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$125.08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$318.08
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$746.14
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$645Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$214.86
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$96.49
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-16.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+131.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+291.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+291.7%+$46.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$672Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$372.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.