Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8cfe84d17693425f27831db5949d7511f3393d4624b182ac6956164cd32b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,238,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,877,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,238,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,428 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 75c | 401,773$299,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,393.85 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 299,553$226,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,937.61 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeed5…1a33backed No | 75c | 221,414$165,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,239.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 63c | 152,428$95,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,819.43 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 50c | 136,583$68,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,800.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 52c | 109,007$56,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,791.6 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 49c | 106,007$52,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,028 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 31c | 105,866$33,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,076.13 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed No | 74c | 102,980$76,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,947.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…cd91backed Yes | 14c | 100,000$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,499.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 69c | 99,414$68,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,890.68 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 19c | 78,255$14,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,865.31 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 29c | 76,228$22,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,200 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 33c | 75,674$24,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,761.69 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 62c | 68,106$42,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,618.8 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 32c | 67,000$21,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,551.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed No | 74c | 61,827$45,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,140.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 74c | 61,494$45,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,727.63 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 60c | 56,909$34,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,765.63 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 52c | 53,790$28,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,788.77 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 68c | 50,701$34,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,146.52 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 67c | 47,669$31,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,740.83 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 50c | 44,812$22,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,589.85 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 30c | 43,208$13,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,012.87 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 38c | 42,062$15,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,897.19 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 23c | 33,222$7,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,703.42 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 57c | 31,495$17,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,676.86 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…0b8cbacked Yes | 53c | 25,742$13,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,622.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 64c | 25,488$16,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,207.27 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 50c | 25,455$12,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,695.8 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 77c | 24,937$19,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,833.38 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +6.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 31c | 23,362$7,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,257.81 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 72c | 23,111$16,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,458.09 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 38c | 22,336$8,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,581.45 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 68c | 21,072$14,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,712.17 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 36c | 20,683$7,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,368.71 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 41c | 18,948$7,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,846.97 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 38c | 18,880$7,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,235.14 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 57c | 18,798$10,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,127.9 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 32c | 17,992$5,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,790.25 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 3c | 17,210$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.87 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 79c | 17,205$13,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,593.52 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 38c | 16,429$6,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,188 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 19c | 16,290$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133.17 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 70c | 16,109$11,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,888.15 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 38c | 15,834$6,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,021.19 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 35c | 15,679$5,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,511.71 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 71c | 15,463$10,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,524.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…589cbacked Yes | 20c | 15,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 78c | 14,116$11,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,075.27 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 13,965$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.52 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…f978backed Yes | 37c | 13,393$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 46c | 13,334$6,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,092.85 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 57c | 13,156$7,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,632.1 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 40c | 12,930$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,206.99 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 23c | 12,844$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,913.01 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes | 39c | 12,748$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 12,724$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.05 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 58c | 12,505$7,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,221.9 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 12,355$4,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,406.21 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 37c | 12,320$4,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,614.57 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bee…56c4backed Yes | 29c | 12,318$3,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 2c | 11,907$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 64c | 11,899$7,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,304.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…50fcbacked Yes | 39c | 11,877$4,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,575.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 20c | 11,767$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.35 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 62c | 11,133$6,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282.17 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…7d86backed Yes | 15c | 11,086$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 33c | 11,012$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.9 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 62c | 10,706$6,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.96 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 64c | 10,643$6,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,871.79 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 67c | 10,154$6,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.73 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 16c | 10,085$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.01 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed No | 56c | 10,000$5,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,423.33 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2659backed Yes | 52c | 10,000$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed No | 65c | 10,000$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.94 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 45c | 9,941$4,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,498.98 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 41c | 9,694$4,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,011.75 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 43c | 9,637$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,537.15 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 48c | 9,267$4,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,836.54 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed Yes | 28c | 9,211$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.52 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 63c | 8,548$5,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,145.58 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 35c | 8,458$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,002 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 73c | 8,427$6,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.73 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 62c | 8,017$5,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,007.36 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 61c | 8,016$4,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108.34 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 51c | 8,000$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,955.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 45c | 8,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 7,512$3,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,608.88 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 70c | 7,500$5,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.81 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…5384backed Yes | 31c | 7,498$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 38c | 7,485$2,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,846.75 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 54c | 7,409$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,409.39 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 14c | 7,322$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.62 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 27c | 7,295$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.45 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…6fddbacked No | 70c | 7,143$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.86 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…c18bbacked Yes | 44c | 7,051$3,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,070 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 39c | 7,039$2,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,740.79 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…5eefbacked Yes | 49c | 7,000$3,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,457.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.