Middle East · resolved market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68fbeb8d823552abf9d35f3ebdb8619a1a1d51b650da9101be62f09308fd18d2

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,715,170
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,178,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,715,170 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 632 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6418…730cbacked Yes	0c	389,528$1,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,498.92	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+5.7wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+75.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	6c	300,892$16,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,892.81	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes	3c	208,902$7,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,198.12	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	0c	203,703$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$686	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55f6…8fbebacked Yes	2c	160,178$3,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,458.62	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	10c	159,067$15,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,213.94	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5297…7b99backed Yes	0c	138,250$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.34	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-11.1wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	+123.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x12df…6a3dbacked Yes	3c	135,852$4,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,048.7	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b9…03b8backed Yes	1c	107,084$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes	3c	105,219$2,757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,756.99	89	33.7%30 W · 59 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	9c	103,650$9,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,082.22	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	10c	91,899$9,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,115.97	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80b2…8561backed Yes	1c	79,803$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes	5c	70,645$3,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,608.51	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes	8c	66,953$5,386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,386.4	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	26cpaid	+91.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Yes	1c	65,006$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	5c	63,522$3,401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,400.79	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	8c	62,024$4,867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,866.58	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e7a…8ba1backed Yes	5c	61,625$2,952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,952.38	10	40%4 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd109…6fa0backed Yes	9c	58,611$5,141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,141.32	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+6.6wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	9c	58,389$5,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,081.51	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a9…4898backed Yes	0c	56,350$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	3c	54,181$1,836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,836.4	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes	1c	52,262$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675	60	13.3%8 W · 52 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d68…11bcbacked Yes	0c	50,795$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.99	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.28per pick	10cpaid	+192.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	6c	49,864$2,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,816.41	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes	6c	49,247$2,951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,951.2	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes	9c	44,444$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,999.96	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	11c	43,285$4,863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,863.32	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Yes	6c	43,017$2,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,464.29	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	13c	42,771$5,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,424.51	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	8c	42,490$3,582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,582.17	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd079…9810backed Yes	0c	42,135$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.54	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa87d…e4bfbacked Yes	16c	41,458$6,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,725.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	9c	38,783$3,684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,683.89	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ce…271dbacked Yes	1c	36,974$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.33	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	35,483$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.85	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…3683backed Yes	1c	35,348$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+656.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x165e…d94dbacked Yes	0c	33,262$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.9	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes	6c	32,386$2,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,090.21	196	48%94 W · 102 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes	2c	31,946$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.26	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafcc…fb70backed Yes	0c	31,647$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	8c	31,498$2,657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,656.96	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	4c	31,221$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178.19	50	14%7 W · 43 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes	1c	31,153$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.78	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+3.8wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x128e…abfabacked Yes	0c	30,600$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e10…d25bbacked Yes	0c	30,000$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes	0c	29,448$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.89	50	0%0 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3d41…e3ddbacked Yes	1c	28,179$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.99	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes	3c	26,559$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733.19	114	6.1%7 W · 107 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes	0c	26,359$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.62	45	20%9 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+91.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes	7c	25,804$1,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,729.46	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…7997backed Yes	12c	25,663$2,997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,996.94	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27e1…508bbacked Yes	1c	25,192$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa91a…165bbacked Yes	0c	23,618$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	8c	23,119$1,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,779.72	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes	3c	22,759$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6413…ab24backed Yes	8c	22,325$1,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,848.36	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.17per pick	43cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed Yes	9c	22,121$1,983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,983.29	81	44.4%36 W · 45 L	+6.9wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes	9c	21,500$1,935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,934.96	177	37.3%66 W · 111 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes	3c	21,400$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728.04	160	41.9%67 W · 93 L	+12.3wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x47f5…3ccfbacked Yes	0c	20,723$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3041…63cebacked Yes	5c	20,314$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd8…d98dbacked Yes	1c	20,034$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.17	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed Yes	1c	20,014$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e1…69a6backed Yes	1c	20,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	1c	19,945$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.69	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf500…7d09backed Yes	8c	19,434$1,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,510.07	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	30cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8d…42d7backed Yes	0c	19,050$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed Yes	1c	19,021$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.64	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd46…4c7dbacked Yes	14c	18,905$2,730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,730	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes	2c	18,783$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338	247	12.1%30 W · 217 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes	5c	18,612$872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871.82	229	27.1%62 W · 167 L	-12.8wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-43%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes	9c	18,607$1,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,590.18	253	39.5%100 W · 153 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	11c	18,091$2,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,047.24	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd49a…69debacked Yes	4c	18,055$683 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$683.29	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes	0c	17,778$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x892b…59c6backed Yes	0c	17,667$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c94…00d0backed Yes	0c	17,500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7a…29f6backed Yes	0c	17,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	8c	17,405$1,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,444.12	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	6c	17,357$1,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,125.87	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes	2c	17,180$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.64	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9689…b263backed Yes	0c	16,667$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	6c	16,445$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.99	156	29.5%46 W · 110 L	+8.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3803…6d3bbacked Yes	0c	16,010$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.04	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes	9c	15,899$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.95	25	76%19 W · 6 L	+6.1wins	+0.24per pick	52cpaid	+54%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa54d…4107backed Yes	0c	15,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c66…44f3backed Yes	19c	15,489$2,869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,869.12	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed Yes	5c	15,386$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.98	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae4…ad95backed Yes	0c	14,693$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes	11c	14,662$1,619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,619.45	409	39.6%162 W · 247 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	16c	14,535$2,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,365.73	135	44.4%60 W · 75 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2517…065dbacked Yes	0c	14,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa431…8e46backed Yes	1c	14,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes	16c	13,557$2,197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,197.49	100	41%41 W · 59 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes	6c	13,415$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$842.13	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe843…fd58backed Yes	0c	12,973$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.28	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d01…9725backed Yes	2c	12,891$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17aa…42febacked Yes	0c	12,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event