TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd079…9810

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$239
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31,788Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31,788.36
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+110.4%+$24.92
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.37
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.6
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$150.26
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$5.44
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.7
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.01
All 16 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$391Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$172.73
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$596.38
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.44
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$3.26
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,918Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,917.83
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.34
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$176.82
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+63.3%+$31
Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+28.8%+$29.1
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$61.3
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+38.5%+$38.64
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+31.5%+$67.21
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$28.29
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+26.4%+$60.68
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+44.9%+$91.85
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.69
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,793Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$2,107.31
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$393.92
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.93
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.58
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.47
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$48.87
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$601Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$242.85
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$92.85
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+42.9%+$30
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.75
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$115.2
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.35
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.35
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Spread: United States (-1.5)backed Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.86
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$29.9
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.9
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$4,378Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$2,422.12
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,480Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+33%+$488.86
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$822Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+39.2%+$322.58
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+38.9%+$28
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+57.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.08
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.26
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$43.69
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.07
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+700%+$175
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$32.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100.58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.