World Politics · resolved market
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda907bc72ace0a6ee956394b022dd7a07e23dd7e1f2346ec1d6cef392e87e77d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cc9…f5d3backed No | 77c | 3,889$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 22c | 3,306$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.72 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 6c | 3,050$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd33f…ff7fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,938$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed No | 77c | 2,604$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 2,356$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.39 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,176$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,666$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…511fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 37c | 1,156$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.04 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 49c | 1,097$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.32 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…dfccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,020$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 23c | 906.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.41 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 759.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 19c | 638.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 583.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…d745backed Yes | 18c | 559.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 25c | 451.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd9…663bbacked Yes | 6c | 439.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 15c | 368.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 4c | 355.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 17c | 346.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…2b26backed Yes | 21c | 336.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed No | 75c | 316.04$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 233.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 230.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…f84cbacked Yes | 53c | 199.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 6c | 179.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470f…e804backed Yes | 6c | 170.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…9810backed Yes | 45c | 135.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…65ccbacked Yes | 29c | 123.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ec…6f92backed Yes | 10c | 119.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ee…ee3bbacked Yes | 57c | 113.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…ac9fbacked Yes | 18c | 102.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…c01cbacked No | 47c | 102.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…b015backed Yes | 20c | 101.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 42c | 100.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2448…373cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1a…240fbacked Yes | 18c | 96.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…5d9fbacked Yes | 18c | 66.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 17c | 64.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…95f8backed Yes | 52c | 55.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…a784backed Yes | 50c | 50.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 31c | 44.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…1bd2backed Yes | 61c | 31.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…f6e0backed Yes | 52c | 19.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Claudia López place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Juan Daniel Oviedo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Sergio Fajardo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.