TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,756 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8dd…ec86backed No32c3,411$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.314450%22 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Yes0c3,080$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes66c2,858$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.143036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked No51c2,839$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.795628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No37c2,135$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.496229%18 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes68c2,071$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.194723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes43c2,006$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.6413444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0ccc…2e7cbacked Yes69c1,422$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.440%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc17…c01cbacked Yes56c1,404$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.092441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No33c1,404$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.5734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed3…5cebbacked Yes80c1,239$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999f…addbbacked Yes67c1,234$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.78540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No31c1,117$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.575932.2%19 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe129…3c8abacked Yes77c1,071$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid+84.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…cf9ebacked Yes5c1,065$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d9…4c5ebacked Yes80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No24c958.64$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.7417037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccb9…f7e7backed Yes69c927.87$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.451457.1%8 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick75cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Yes5c892.1$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e11…8024backed Yes68c762.38$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes71c718$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No43c710.54$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.2511647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe436…011abacked Yes69c704.97$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.7720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes60c700$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4207533.3%25 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd508…e84fbacked Yes67c693.67$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No32c658.95$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.8839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…82b1backed Yes76c529.21$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.0720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8110331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes70c461.49$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.327044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes6c461.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.682520%5 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+77.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb383…3031backed Yes75c455.68$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid+46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No31c445$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.534944.9%22 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No37c441.27$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.8510646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes79c434.4$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.215347.2%25 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes33c431.62$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.526632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes58c393.19$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.055942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c366.25$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.336055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked Yes65c361.64$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.341250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No34c360$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.513748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d0…18b2backed Yes6c352.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No28c330.52$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.181,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ee…d3d6backed Yes76c296.57$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No37c279.68$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf236…b81bbacked Yes68c277.48$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x705b…7483backed Yes62c266.75$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.391258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f9b…a9aabacked Yes6c262.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes45c256.74$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.55313.2%7 W · 46 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-80.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8656…52fcbacked Yes80c250.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c250.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0244428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3af1…f582backed Yes9c245.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd5…e689backed Yes5c244.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe642…43b4backed Yes69c234.19$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes60c219.01$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3843243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No36c196.41$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.0512249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No29c195$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9314954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b16…961fbacked Yes63c185$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.31827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No21c181$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.83852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14bf…a362backed Yes60c166.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No37c163.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8326355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No28c153.11$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8318628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No71c148.04$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2120065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes64c148$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.41435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+288.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c4…9369backed Yes68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No25c143.13$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.051442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…7ed4backed Yes70c142.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes62c140.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.48854.5%48 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes71c130.74$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.392040%8 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+178.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac57…65ccbacked Yes64c123.16$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No32c118.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.214761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49e3…76a7backed Yes40c118.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No20c118$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8516755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No31c116.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.717330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes63c102.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8190…b247backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-43.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d17…0d91backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8526…bcbfbacked No32c93.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+68.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd9…663bbacked Yes70c91.72$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c90.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6618348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No68c90$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.858854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No47c87.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.154548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…679ebacked Yes71c85.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.682857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa81f…eed2backed Yes62c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e3…588bbacked Yes74c75.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452045%9 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b0b…05b9backed Yes75c75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dfc…3b82backed Yes72c74.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.38683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No29c66.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7222355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3b…fee6backed Yes65c64.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbabf…b123backed Yes75c63.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes64c62.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.228036.3%29 W · 51 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No63c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.221,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.828558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes56c57.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2328430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No31c57.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.515337.7%20 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No37c55.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.896934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No56c53.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3899017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x38ce…4b22backed Yes78c50.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb5…aefdbacked Yes48c50.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+89.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.