World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5316f1032d75854eaca7b48150223e5191d43231aa14ee7b2cb8a2186d681a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 17c | 8,144$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,728.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…d6ddbacked Yes | 28c | 7,277$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,235.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 32c | 5,839$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,976.48 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No | 80c | 4,500$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.88 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 72c | 4,306$3,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,099.35 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5ab5backed Yes | 9c | 2,644$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 13cpaid | +418.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 32c | 1,990$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.3 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 18c | 1,287$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.76 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…9c68backed Yes | 3c | 972.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,894.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 969.07$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.92 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 69c | 952.27$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.14 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 922.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.5 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 27c | 836.36$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…b261backed Yes | 15c | 655.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +302.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 410.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.41 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 409$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.19 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 407$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.51 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 36c | 393.09$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.33 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 360$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.03 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 20c | 325.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdf…b255backed Yes | 14c | 320.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +363.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 7c | 315$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.4 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 292.74$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.61 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…e689backed Yes | 28c | 282.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 79c | 279.4$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.27 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 261$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 245$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 240$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…9389backed Yes | 8c | 225.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.67per pick | 13cpaid | +597.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 196.41$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 188$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 80c | 178$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…9cd7backed Yes | 33c | 145.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb383…3031backed No | 80c | 125.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…098bbacked Yes | 12c | 92.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 90.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 33c | 90.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd954…7bd6backed Yes | 24c | 84.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +111%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 19c | 79.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…be74backed Yes | 25c | 79.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed No | 78c | 69.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 79c | 54.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 46.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 35.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 34.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed No | 77c | 33.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…8b39backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 72c | 26.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 24.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 20.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…43a7backed No | 73c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Claudia López place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Daniel Oviedo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Sergio Fajardo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.