TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,795,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,960,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,795,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 706 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked No17c147,908$25,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,178.395016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No0c84,748$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid-43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No11c70,081$7,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,920.612429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No1c69,951$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed No0c67,461$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.15490%0 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50640%0 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No19c45,927$8,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,744.362330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Yes72c38,973$28,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,944.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a4…6356backed Yes78c38,352$30,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,249.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed No9c31,527$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.1480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd4…ed58backed No19c30,621$5,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,882.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4e…818abacked Yes79c29,263$23,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,262.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7368…8b3bbacked Yes78c24,352$19,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,337.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No3c14,251$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.021921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No13c13,815$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.45012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda15…f349backed No6c13,587$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c13,316$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.486291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes76c12,626$9,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,971.871250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No22c12,516$2,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,726.327020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cf…c6ebbacked Yes78c11,234$8,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No3c10,158$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.428815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35e…0188backed Yes73c9,744$7,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No2c9,342$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.07634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7fe…72b0backed Yes78c9,200$7,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No10c9,144$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.4329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6602…089fbacked No1c8,328$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.44250%0 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes63c7,726$4,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.5514421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No11c7,578$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.661388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd079…9810backed Yes64c6,801$4,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,422.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No17c6,304$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.688942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No0c5,623$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c5,293$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.753042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No22c5,292$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.884736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc5…b83abacked Yes78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1002100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c4,962$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.6717824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed Yes77c4,526$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.392524%6 W · 19 L-8.3wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-67%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No3c4,497$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.15590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c4,336$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5421713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No0c4,330$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.328547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No35c4,248$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.173946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed No5c4,039$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.192722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No2c3,836$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.866145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…1638backed No2c3,769$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8d…24a9backed No1c3,706$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a3…ec81backed No21c3,444$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99bf…fec5backed Yes79c3,287$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c0c…a417backed Yes79c3,110$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca9…37d1backed No1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7432…c16abacked No22c2,929$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.7350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked No1c2,810$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.312114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked No2c2,704$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No33c2,661$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.824055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No13c2,648$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.22977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No1c2,498$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.252792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed No3c2,468$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No15c2,429$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.218741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No27c2,419$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.233050%15 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7368…fd66backed No19c2,359$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.91650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes75c2,347$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No5c2,300$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No8c2,274$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.748122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c2,126$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.34731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x925a…f115backed Yes76c2,042$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No2c2,017$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked No29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c2,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaabb…0ac6backed Yes78c2,000$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c5…6dd1backed Yes78c1,978$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes51c1,944$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e9…e288backed Yes55c1,819$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07df…8be6backed No15c1,768$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7780%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes78c1,700$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8432…8360backed Yes78c1,658$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked No45c1,596$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925a…5373backed No6c1,577$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No17c1,559$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.963231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes80c1,558$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.931163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf82…17febacked No1c1,553$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No25c1,537$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.047538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No5c1,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.291540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da6…9ac4backed No6c1,482$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9480%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No5c1,393$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.613243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes78c1,349$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…179abacked Yes79c1,323$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.41119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-88.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d1b…9847backed No2c1,300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…5b80backed Yes79c1,290$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef8a…fd72backed No4c1,278$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed Yes79c1,269$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…9f6abacked No4c1,268$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ad…d90bbacked Yes80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c1,239$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.461,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a8…4126backed Yes77c1,210$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.394100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9c…32e2backed Yes77c1,176$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.511553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No4c1,171$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.77943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked No4c1,161$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.951163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick39cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No2c1,109$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2610730.8%33 W · 74 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8d…6724backed Yes79c1,100$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.42454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.