AI · resolved market
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3447ef42f1795107933976bb33ee030cd83d7eac5fc1173a24fb8d47c37dd8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,221,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $627,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,221,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 261,453$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.45 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6a…0eadbacked Yes | 0c | 107,117$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…93cabacked Yes | 0c | 66,887$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 46,556$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 42,343$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 37,280$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 28,999$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…e4fabacked Yes | 0c | 15,804$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 0c | 12,989$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 12,332$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f23…4761backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de8…9b07backed Yes | 0c | 5,670$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…0e3ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…a026backed Yes | 0c | 5,165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 5,145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.