AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fbd02c4ea776cff3138d484b6500277cabb70d644196804d535e9b07e0c7d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,433,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $927,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,433,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 101,903$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 93,797$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 74,663$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…bdf8backed Yes | 0c | 73,847$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 69,848$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.59 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Yes | 0c | 68,386$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 0c | 36,287$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes | 0c | 34,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 34,500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 0c | 33,332$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…ab2fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,212$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 29,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 0c | 27,959$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…5948backed Yes | 0c | 21,700$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,845$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…6378backed Yes | 1c | 20,801$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…9139backed Yes | 1c | 18,663$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6a…0eadbacked Yes | 0c | 17,959$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 14,085$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 12,180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 11,580$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 1c | 11,165$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…44cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…5f25backed Yes | 0c | 8,235$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…71cfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,566$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 1c | 5,936$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,714$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…d4ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…f349backed Yes | 2c | 4,848$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…7bcfbacked Yes | 0c | 4,375$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…735dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,293$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 0c | 4,279$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…e710backed Yes | 1c | 4,153$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c40…e7d6backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes | 1c | 3,458$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 1c | 3,075$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 0c | 2,755$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,373$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724a…74aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,996$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…9efdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,951$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…626bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,717$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…c794backed Yes | 1c | 1,407$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Yes | 1c | 1,342$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Yes | 3c | 741.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Yes | 4c | 507.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…1990backed Yes | 3c | 459.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.