TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$928,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$634,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $928,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 369 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50640%0 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c44,466$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.42920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes6c38,708$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.215016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c24,739$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.626312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x795d…bdf8backed Yes2c23,818$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes2c22,341$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.628815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c19,833$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.866291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes43c16,000$6,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,902.121520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes46c15,182$6,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,955.5840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c13,301$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes3c13,266$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.632722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68fa…b106backed Yes1c13,164$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes9c13,013$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.414421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes21c12,755$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes25c11,745$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,978.311723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-61.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f23…afd3backed Yes10c10,687$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3012…2937backed Yes5c10,200$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae4…299fbacked Yes6c10,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes24c9,358$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2104259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c8,998$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4510126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes23c8,650$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e64…fc32backed Yes6c7,895$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ae…1399backed Yes4c7,501$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c7,083$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.692560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ff…2d8abacked Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x444e…31c1backed Yes42c6,847$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.58825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes3c6,087$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.66283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes17c5,998$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.417020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7554…224cbacked Yes12c5,825$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes5c5,722$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.711030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed Yes3c5,517$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.432626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c5,516$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.62003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f27…256cbacked Yes0c5,506$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c5,223$4,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.654736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes3c5,019$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.942114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeadf…26efbacked Yes11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ab…784ebacked Yes24c4,874$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf040…3a86backed Yes1c4,491$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.062218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-67.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b3…9aafbacked Yes3c4,450$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No62c4,254$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.883946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42d1…14aabacked Yes37c4,213$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd526…20a7backed Yes21c3,899$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes24c3,869$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.8527536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d5…bd41backed Yes1c3,673$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…5f25backed Yes0c3,522$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bd4…ed58backed Yes20c3,509$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c3,496$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.093042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes7c3,352$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.931388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes9c3,294$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.319041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4266…5305backed Yes23c3,247$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Yes24c3,233$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4506…3dd1backed Yes10c3,072$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6383…b007backed Yes21c2,830$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No60c2,741$1,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.124055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…425bbacked Yes3c2,705$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.15520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-64.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2a…87eebacked Yes3c2,518$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4682…4d40backed Yes1c2,503$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c2…735dbacked Yes3c2,495$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No65c2,454$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.853050%15 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6302…7917backed Yes4c2,446$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes7c2,433$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes42c2,406$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00090%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb177…ac08backed Yes4c2,384$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.21944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick16cpaid+248.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes23c2,290$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.95474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6602…089fbacked Yes1c2,260$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3250%0 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f07…743bbacked Yes4c2,170$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38d…7080backed Yes25c2,092$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed Yes3c2,015$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.31921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca89…b94abacked Yes20c2,004$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26a0…a872backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes7c2,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0768…fe5cbacked Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…0538backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Yes20c2,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c02…e658backed Yes23c1,963$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Yes3c1,924$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7368…fd66backed No77c1,882$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.66650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5018…6108backed Yes27c1,868$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e8…faeabacked Yes28c1,815$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes52c1,760$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9101520%3 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-56.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No75c1,745$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.165843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea7…1672backed Yes3c1,699$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7432…c16abacked Yes21c1,690$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf72a…6fd0backed Yes30c1,674$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9f…578abacked Yes6c1,642$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1c…92b2backed Yes23c1,636$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c1,635$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a40…e7f0backed No78c1,600$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a8…e606backed Yes28c1,570$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes34c1,565$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.763315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x997b…641bbacked Yes18c1,550$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-59.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb340…fcfdbacked Yes5c1,536$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed Yes3c1,517$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No77c1,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3454353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6519…611bbacked Yes20c1,464$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,461$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,425$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.451,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Yes4c1,418$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c1,403$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.47538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.