TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa89b…3c2b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Stocks, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+987%+$908
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$26.5
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.25
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$24
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+84.6%+$43.54
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$84.15
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.36
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.49
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.79
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$15.59
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+115.8%+$80.49
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+97.9%+$91.99
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinebacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+89.3%+$49.87
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.49
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+287.6%+$163.24
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.5
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$30
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.71
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.18
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.41
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.02
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+27%+$18.09
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$118.79
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+35.5%+$41.17
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.22
All 10 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+346.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google reach $375 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+346.5%+$160
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$64.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$30.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.