Stocks · resolved market
Will Google reach $375 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f52030d126be47748dee4b6f1e493f0e1c14cfbd335cb0ce860e63e02f12927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 10c | 6,650$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,011.66 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c26…1432backed No | 10c | 3,724$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 19c | 3,432$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.23 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…7bb9backed No | 62c | 1,135$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9967…1e5dbacked Yes | 1c | 829.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +8,199.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 6c | 674.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.97 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 64c | 503.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 11c | 472.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.34 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…be93backed Yes | 3c | 413.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +1,355.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 5c | 410.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.47 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…c757backed No | 60c | 337.09$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed Yes | 20c | 330.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa564…e542backed Yes | 28c | 300.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…7565backed Yes | 18c | 276.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +452.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…4193backed No | 77c | 245$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 32c | 229.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed Yes | 71c | 212$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 22c | 208.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes | 22c | 206.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 195.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 8c | 171.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 14c | 145.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…de14backed No | 43c | 106.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 18c | 103.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 26c | 91.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…5db6backed No | 62c | 80.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f88…b616backed Yes | 28c | 52.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +252.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 52.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 78c | 49.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 40c | 49.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed No | 72c | 36.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 68c | 32.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 75c | 22.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google reach $375 in April?this page
- Will Google dip to $220 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $255 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $270 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $280 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $310 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $320 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $335 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $400 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.