Stocks · resolved market
Will Google dip to $280 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c8ebe201ec4a4a73522ea955e7ab67d2f190157d6f8d477877b5ddf06a3719d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 23c | 375$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 35c | 158.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.27 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 44c | 100.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…72cdbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 43c | 66.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 75c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…80f0backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 70c | 17.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google dip to $280 in April?this page
- Will Google dip to $220 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $255 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $270 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $310 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $320 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $335 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $375 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $400 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.